This individual's Sleep Quality Rating is generally highest after a daily total of 0 milligrams of Acetyl L-carnitine intake over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Acetyl L-carnitine intake over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Acetyl L-carnitine intake is usually followed by an decrease in Sleep Quality Rating. (R = -0.211)
Typical values for Sleep Quality Rating following a given amount of Acetyl L-carnitine intake over the previous 7 days.
Typical Acetyl L-carnitine intake seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Sleep Quality Rating value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how your Acetyl L-carnitine changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Acetyl L-carnitine on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Acetyl L-carnitine for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Sleep Quality Rating changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Sleep Quality Rating on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Sleep Quality Rating for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Sleep Quality Rating is generally 7% higher than normal after a total of 0 milligrams Acetyl L-carnitine intake over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=1.949894471337E-8, 95% CI -0.347 to -0.075) that Acetyl L-carnitine has a weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.21) with Sleep Quality Rating. The highest quartile of Sleep Quality Rating measurements were observed following an average 1 milligrams Acetyl L-carnitine per day. The lowest quartile of Sleep Quality Rating measurements were observed following an average 2002.3952095808 mg Acetyl L-carnitine per day.Sleep Quality Rating is generally 10% lower than normal after a total of 2002.3952095808 milligrams of Acetyl L-carnitine intake over the previous 7 days. Sleep Quality Rating is generally 7% higher after a total of 1 milligrams of Acetyl L-carnitine intake over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Acetyl L-carnitine and Sleep Quality Rating. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Acetyl L-carnitine values most likely to produce optimal Sleep Quality Rating values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Acetyl L-carnitine daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Get Sleep as Android here and use it to record your Sleep Quality Rating. Once you have a Sleep as Android account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Acetyl L-carnitine Pre-Processing
Acetyl L-carnitine measurement values below 0 milligrams were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Acetyl L-carnitine. It was assumed that any gaps in Acetyl L-carnitine data were unrecorded 0 milligrams measurement values.
Acetyl L-carnitine Analysis Settings

Sleep Quality Rating Pre-Processing
Sleep Quality Rating measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Sleep Quality Rating measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Sleep Quality Rating so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Sleep Quality Rating Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Acetyl L-carnitine would produce an observable change in Sleep Quality Rating. It was assumed that Acetyl L-carnitine could produce an observable change in Sleep Quality Rating for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
710 raw Acetyl L-carnitine measurements with 336 changes spanning 2524 days from 2012-07-21 to 2019-06-19 were used in this analysis. 640 raw Sleep Quality Rating measurements with 265 changes spanning 1972 days from 2013-11-23 to 2019-04-19 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Acetyl L-carnitine data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Sleep Quality Rating data was primarily collected using Sleep as Android. Smart alarm clock with sleep cycle tracking. Wakes you gently in optimal moment for pleasant mornings.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly negative relationship between Acetyl L-carnitine intake and Sleep Quality Rating

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 482 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Acetyl L-carnitine intake values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Acetyl L-carnitine intake and Sleep Quality Rating is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Acetyl L-carnitine intake
Effect Variable Name Sleep Quality Rating
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.2092
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.13588317586184
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient -0.211
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Acetyl L-carnitine intake Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Sleep Quality Rating 1 milligrams
Total Acetyl L-carnitine intake Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Sleep Quality Rating 2 milligrams
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly negative
Number of Paired Measurements 482
Optimal Pearson Product 0.069110625596505
P Value 1.949894471337E-8
Statistical Significance 0.9915
Strength of Relationship 0.13588317586184
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-26

Acetyl L-carnitine Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Acetyl L-carnitine
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-23
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 6.2899709619036
Mean 194 milligrams
Median 0 milligrams
Minimum Allowed Value 0 milligrams
Number of Changes 336
Number of Correlations 263
Number of Measurements 710
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 284.51358843211
Unit Milligrams
UPC 885222361371
Variable ID 1247
Variance 80947.982002518

Sleep Quality Rating Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Sleep Quality Rating
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-20
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 2.750867329258
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.6725 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 265
Number of Correlations 2073
Number of Measurements 640
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.89218361497642
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 675595199127
Variable ID 5953225
Variance 0.79599160283239

Tracking Acetyl L-carnitine

Record your Acetyl L-carnitine daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Sleep Quality Rating

Get Sleep as Android here and use it to record your Sleep Quality Rating. Once you have a Sleep as Android account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn