This individual's Overall Mood is generally 9% lower after 2.09 serving Apples - Raw, With Skin over the previous 14 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption over the previous 14 days
An increase in 14 days cumulative Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption is usually followed by an decrease in Overall Mood. (R = -0.199)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption over the previous 14 days.
Typical Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption seen over the previous 14 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how Apples - Raw, With Skin changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Apples - Raw, With Skin on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Apples - Raw, With Skin for each month of the year.
This chart shows how Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 1% higher than normal after a total of 0 serving Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption over the previous 14 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=0.001, 95% CI -0.314 to -0.084) that Apples - Raw, With Skin (serving) has a weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.2) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 0.07 serving Apples - Raw, With Skin (serving) per day. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 0.27212020033389 serving Apples - Raw, With Skin (serving) per day. Overall Mood is generally 8% lower than normal after a total of 0.27212020033389 serving of Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption over the previous 14 days. Overall Mood is generally 1% higher after a total of 0.07 serving of Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption over the previous 14 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Apples and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Apples - Raw, With Skin (serving) values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Get MyFitnessPal here and use it to record your Apples - Raw, With Skin. Once you have a MyFitnessPal account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Apples - Raw, With Skin Pre-Processing
Apples - Raw, With Skin measurement values below 0 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. Apples - Raw, With Skin measurement values above 40 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Apples - Raw, With Skin data were unrecorded 0 serving measurement values.
Apples - Raw, With Skin Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Apples - Raw, With Skin (serving) would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Apples - Raw, With Skin (serving) could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 14 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
32 raw Apples - Raw, With Skin (serving) measurements with 28 changes spanning 1945 days from 2013-04-15 to 2018-08-13 were used in this analysis. 14182 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1273 changes spanning 2665 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-08-22 were used in this analysis.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Overall Mood is statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. After treatment, a 9% decrease (-0.26188745313254 out of 5) from the mean baseline 2.9016874285309 out of 5 was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 15.8%. The observed change was 0.57276593770257 times the standard deviation. A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would may have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value

Data Sources

Apples - Raw, With Skin (serving) data was primarily collected using MyFitnessPal. Lose weight with MyFitnessPal, the fastest and easiest-to-use calorie counter for iPhone and iPad. With the largest food database of any iOS calorie counter (over 3,000,000 foods), and amazingly fast food and exercise entry.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly negative relationship between Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 1716 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 3 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 3 feel that any relationship observed between Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.1097
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.1147506021012
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient -0.199
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption Over Previous 14 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 0.07 serving
Total Apples - Raw, With Skin consumption Over Previous 14 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 0.272 serving
Duration of Action 14 days
Effect Size weakly negative
Number of Paired Measurements 1716
Optimal Pearson Product 0.068677416234213
P Value 0.001
Statistical Significance 0.4225
Strength of Relationship 0.1147506021012
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-08
Number of Pairs 1716
Number of Raw Predictor Measurements ( Including Tags, Joins, and Children) 32
Baseline Relative Standard Deviation of Outcome Measurements 15.8
Experiment Duration (days) 2019
Number of Raw Outcome Measurements 14129
Z Score 0.57276593770257
Last Analysis 2019-08-08
Experiment Began 2013-03-16 17:00:00
Experiment Ended 2018-09-26 01:30:00
P Value 0.001
Predictor Category Foods
Duration of Action (h) 336
Onset Delay (h) 0.5
Significance 0.4225
Outcome Relative Standard Deviation at Baseline 15.8
Outcome Standard Deviation at Baseline 0.45723293913566/5
Outcome Mean at Baseline 2.9016874285309/5
Average Followup Change From Baseline -9&
Average Absolute Followup Change From Baseline 2.6397999753984/5
Z- Score 0.57276593770257
Average Predictor Treatment Value 2.09serving over 14 days

Apples - Raw, With Skin Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Apples - Raw, With Skin (serving)
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-15
Duration of Action 14 days
Kurtosis 225.15977310492
Maximum Allowed Value 40 serving
Mean 0.0063447 serving
Median 0 serving
Minimum Allowed Value 0 serving
Number of Changes 28
Number of Correlations 146
Number of Measurements 32
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.083737186363124
Unit Serving
Variable ID 110372
Variance 0.0070119163800126

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-22
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8592239252433
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9065 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1273
Number of Correlations 4592
Number of Measurements 14182
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52145727417909
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.27191768879429

Tracking Apples - Raw, With Skin

Get MyFitnessPal here and use it to record your Apples - Raw, With Skin. Once you have a MyFitnessPal account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn