Mike P. Sinn
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
Mike P. Sinn

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For most, Overall Mood is generally highest after a daily total of 15 count of Awakenings over the previous 7 days.
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People with higher Awakenings usually have lower Overall Mood
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Awakenings on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Awakenings for each month of the year.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

Aggregated data from 39 study participants suggests with a medium degree of confidence (p=0.24716768050155, 95% CI -0.243 to 0.21) that Awakenings has a very weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.02) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 17.13 count Awakenings per day. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 15.768337028825 count Awakenings per day.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Awakenings and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Awakenings values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Awakenings. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by 39 participants. Thus, the study design is equivalent to the aggregation of 39 separate n=1 observational natural experiments.

Data Analysis

Awakenings Pre-Processing
Awakenings measurement values below 0 count were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Awakenings. No missing data filling value was defined for Awakenings so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Awakenings Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Awakenings would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Awakenings could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Sources

Awakenings data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly negative relationship between Awakenings and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 106 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Awakenings values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 2 feel that any relationship observed between Awakenings and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Awakenings
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0074083241298203
Confidence Level medium
Confidence Interval 0.22639201789974
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient -0.0162
Critical T Value 1.7041351351351
Total Awakenings Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 17.13 count
Total Awakenings Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 15.768337028825 count
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size very weakly negative
Number of Paired Measurements 106
Optimal Pearson Product 0.034013161760372
P Value 0.24716768050155
Statistical Significance 0.37847948480302
Strength of Relationship 0.22639201789974
Study Type population
Analysis Performed At 2019-01-29
Number of Participants 39

Awakenings Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Awakenings
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-01-18
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 11.455434659543
Mean 14.928057142857 count
Median 13.276397515528 count
Minimum Allowed Value 0 count
Number of Correlations 392
Number of Measurements 32749
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 8.3315347499515
Unit Count
Variable ID 1906
Variance 127.74096936744

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-01-27
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 3.7383708126619
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 3.1156748504321 out of 5
Median 3.1369047348216 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Correlations 1149
Number of Measurements 605816
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.56833853113207
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.43884384603152

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn