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This individual's Psoriasis Severity is generally lowest after a daily total of 14 count of Awakenings over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Awakenings over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Awakenings is usually followed by an increase in Psoriasis Severity. (R = 0.156)
Typical values for Psoriasis Severity following a given amount of Awakenings over the previous 7 days.
Typical Awakenings seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Psoriasis Severity value.
This chart shows how your Awakenings changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Awakenings on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Awakenings for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Psoriasis Severity changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Psoriasis Severity on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Psoriasis Severity for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Psoriasis Severity is generally 4% lower than normal after 14 count Awakenings per 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=0.0001762453806511, 95% CI 0.082 to 0.23) that Awakenings has a weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.16) with Psoriasis Severity. The highest quartile of Psoriasis Severity measurements were observed following an average 27.14 count Awakenings per day. The lowest quartile of Psoriasis Severity measurements were observed following an average 24.949227373068 count Awakenings per day.Psoriasis Severity is generally 4% lower than normal after a total of 24.949227373068 count of Awakenings over the previous 7 days. Psoriasis Severity is generally 4% higher after a total of 27.14 count of Awakenings over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Awakenings and Psoriasis Severity. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Awakenings values most likely to produce optimal Psoriasis Severity values.

Participant Instructions

Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Awakenings. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
Record your Psoriasis Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Awakenings Pre-Processing
Awakenings measurement values below 1 count were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Awakenings. No missing data filling value was defined for Awakenings so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Awakenings Analysis Settings

Psoriasis Severity Pre-Processing
Psoriasis Severity measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Psoriasis Severity measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Psoriasis Severity so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Psoriasis Severity Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Awakenings would produce an observable change in Psoriasis Severity. It was assumed that Awakenings could produce an observable change in Psoriasis Severity for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
1434 raw Awakenings measurements with 1390 changes spanning 1966 days from 2013-11-26 to 2019-04-15 were used in this analysis. 819 raw Psoriasis Severity measurements with 180 changes spanning 2293 days from 2013-01-13 to 2019-04-25 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Awakenings data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

Psoriasis Severity data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between Awakenings and Psoriasis Severity

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 780 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Awakenings values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Awakenings and Psoriasis Severity is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Awakenings
Effect Variable Name Psoriasis Severity
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.1618
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.074315024064898
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.156
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Awakenings Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Psoriasis Severity 27.14 count
Total Awakenings Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Psoriasis Severity 24.949 count
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 780
Optimal Pearson Product 0.0311037032134
P Value 0.0001762453806511
Statistical Significance 1
Strength of Relationship 0.074315024064898
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-06

Awakenings Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Awakenings
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-16
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 3.5568308675072
Mean 23.904 count
Median 23 count
Minimum Allowed Value 1 count
Number of Changes 1390
Number of Correlations 2818
Number of Measurements 1434
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 11.429476940955
Unit Count
Variable ID 1906
Variance 130.63294314381

Psoriasis Severity Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Psoriasis Severity
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-28
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 3.0565555696441
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.4375 out of 5
Median 2 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 180
Number of Correlations 1235
Number of Measurements 819
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.70396562319319
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
Variable ID 1421
Variance 0.49556759863778

Tracking Awakenings

Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Awakenings. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Tracking Psoriasis Severity

Record your Psoriasis Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn