This individual's Guiltiness is generally lowest after a daily total of 500 milligrams of Berberine HCl intake over the previous 24 hours.
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Blue represents the sum of Berberine HCl intake over the previous 24 hours
An increase in 24 hours cumulative Berberine HCl intake is usually followed by an decrease in Guiltiness. (R = -0.213)
Typical values for Guiltiness following a given amount of Berberine HCl intake over the previous 24 hours.
Typical Berberine HCl intake seen over the previous 24 hours preceding the given Guiltiness value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how your Berberine HCl changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Berberine HCl on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Berberine HCl for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Guiltiness changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Guiltiness on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Guiltiness for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Guiltiness is generally 7% lower than normal after 500 milligrams Berberine HCl per 24 hours. This individual's data suggests with a medium degree of confidence (p=0.021669412209304, 95% CI -0.494 to 0.068) that Berberine HCl has a weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.21) with Guiltiness. The highest quartile of Guiltiness measurements were observed following an average 261.19 milligrams Berberine HCl per day. The lowest quartile of Guiltiness measurements were observed following an average 401.78571428571 mg Berberine HCl per day.Guiltiness is generally 7% lower than normal after a total of 401.78571428571 milligrams of Berberine HCl intake over the previous 24 hours. Guiltiness is generally 13% higher after a total of 261.19 milligrams of Berberine HCl intake over the previous 24 hours.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Berberine HCl and Guiltiness. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Berberine HCl values most likely to produce optimal Guiltiness values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Berberine HCl daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Guiltiness daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Berberine HCl Pre-Processing
Berberine HCl measurement values below 0 milligrams were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Berberine HCl. It was assumed that any gaps in Berberine HCl data were unrecorded 0 milligrams measurement values.
Berberine HCl Analysis Settings

Guiltiness Pre-Processing
Guiltiness measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Guiltiness measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Guiltiness so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Guiltiness Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Berberine HCl would produce an observable change in Guiltiness. It was assumed that Berberine HCl could produce an observable change in Guiltiness for as much as 1 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
90 raw Berberine HCl measurements with 8 changes spanning 102 days from 2019-03-03 to 2019-06-13 were used in this analysis. 2973 raw Guiltiness measurements with 716 changes spanning 2048 days from 2013-11-17 to 2019-06-28 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Berberine HCl data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Guiltiness data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly negative relationship between Berberine HCl intake and Guiltiness

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 123 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Berberine HCl intake values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Berberine HCl intake and Guiltiness is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Berberine HCl intake
Effect Variable Name Guiltiness
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0404
Confidence Level medium
Confidence Interval 0.28080773031231
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient -0.213
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Berberine H Cl intake Over Previous 24 hours Before ABOVE Average Guiltiness 261.19 milligrams
Total Berberine H Cl intake Over Previous 24 hours Before BELOW Average Guiltiness 401.786 milligrams
Duration of Action 24 hours
Effect Size weakly negative
Number of Paired Measurements 123
Optimal Pearson Product 0.12508996849433
P Value 0.021669412209304
Statistical Significance 0.1898
Strength of Relationship 0.28080773031231
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-09

Berberine HCl Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Berberine HCl
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-19
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 1.472325637729
Mean 332.09 milligrams
Median 500 milligrams
Minimum Allowed Value 0 milligrams
Number of Changes 8
Number of Correlations 57
Number of Measurements 90
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 237.02439399494
Unit Milligrams
Variable ID 6054147
Variance 56180.56334867

Guiltiness Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Guiltiness
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-28
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 3.0693668747023
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.1685 out of 5
Median 2 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 716
Number of Correlations 5425
Number of Measurements 2973
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.93526347749501
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
Variable ID 1335
Variance 0.87471777233607

Tracking Berberine HCl

Record your Berberine HCl daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Guiltiness

Record your Guiltiness daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn