This individual's Overall Mood is generally 1.1% higher after 3.33 out of 5 Burning Tongue over the previous 24 hours.
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Blue represents the mean of Burning Tongue over the previous 24 hours
An increase in 24 hours cumulative Burning Tongue is usually followed by an increase in Overall Mood. (R = 0.025)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Burning Tongue over the previous 24 hours.
Typical Burning Tongue seen over the previous 24 hours preceding the given Overall Mood value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how Burning Tongue changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Burning Tongue on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Burning Tongue for each month of the year.
This chart shows how Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 0% higher than normal after an average of 2.25 out of 5 Burning Tongue over the previous 24 hours. This individual's data suggests with a medium degree of confidence (p=0.27553489762763, 95% CI -0.034 to 0.084) that Burning Tongue has a very weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.03) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 2.11 out of 5 Burning Tongue. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 2.1844444444444 /5 Burning Tongue. Overall Mood is generally 1% lower than normal after an average of 2.1844444444444 out of 5 of Burning Tongue over the previous 24 hours. Overall Mood is generally 0% higher after an average of 2.11 out of 5 of Burning Tongue over the previous 24 hours.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Burning Tongue and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Burning Tongue values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Burning Tongue daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Burning Tongue Pre-Processing
Burning Tongue measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Burning Tongue measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Burning Tongue so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Burning Tongue Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Burning Tongue would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Burning Tongue could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 1 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
627 raw Burning Tongue measurements with 281 changes spanning 827 days from 2017-05-17 to 2019-08-22 were used in this analysis. 14182 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1273 changes spanning 2665 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-08-22 were used in this analysis.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Overall Mood is not statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. This suggests that the Burning Tongue value does not have a significant influence on the Overall Mood value.After treatment, a 1.1% increase (0.030604184084505 out of 5) from the mean baseline 2.8430895958593 out of 5 was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 13.1%. The observed change was 0.082188590266462 times the standard deviation. A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would may have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value

Data Sources

Burning Tongue data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly positive relationship between Burning Tongue and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 491 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Burning Tongue values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Burning Tongue and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Potential Issues Identified During Analysis
The average of effect values expected to be lower than average (2.8736937799438) are actually higher than the average (2.8523144823043). This suggests a weak relationship or insufficient data.
The average of effect values expected to be higher than average (2.8430895958593) are actually lower than the average (2.8523144823043). This suggests a weak relationship or insufficient data.
The low effect change is greater than the high effect change.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Burning Tongue
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.025
Confidence Level medium
Confidence Interval 0.058551045676906
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient 0.025
Critical T Value 1.646
Average Burning Tongue Over Previous 24 hours Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 2.11 out of 5
Average Burning Tongue Over Previous 24 hours Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 2.184 out of 5
Duration of Action 24 hours
Effect Size very weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 506
Optimal Pearson Product -0.0020900245001195
P Value 0.27553489762763
Statistical Significance 0.9998
Strength of Relationship 0.058551045676906
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-07
Number of Pairs 506
Number of Raw Predictor Measurements ( Including Tags, Joins, and Children) 612
Baseline Relative Standard Deviation of Outcome Measurements 13.1
Experiment Duration (days) 827
Number of Raw Outcome Measurements 14111
Z Score 0.082188590266462
Last Analysis 2019-08-07
Experiment Began 2017-05-17 01:00:00
Experiment Ended 2019-08-22 21:00:00
P Value 0.27553489762763
Predictor Category Symptoms
Duration of Action (h) 24
Significance 0.9998
Outcome Relative Standard Deviation at Baseline 13.1
Outcome Standard Deviation at Baseline 0.37236536099821/5
Outcome Mean at Baseline 2.8430895958593/5
Average Followup Change From Baseline 1.1&
Average Absolute Followup Change From Baseline 2.8736937799438/5
Z- Score 0.082188590266462
Average Predictor Treatment Value 3.33/5 over 24 hours

Burning Tongue Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Burning Tongue
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-22
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 2.7832651785557
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.1342 out of 5
Median 2 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 281
Number of Correlations 616
Number of Measurements 627
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.94721507881741
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
Variable ID 88381
Variance 0.89721640553908

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-22
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8592239252433
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9065 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1273
Number of Correlations 4592
Number of Measurements 14182
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52145727417909
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.27191768879429

Tracking Burning Tongue

Record your Burning Tongue daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn