This individual's Overall Mood is generally 27.4% higher after 1.24 serving Butter Microwave Popcorn over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption is usually followed by an increase in Overall Mood. (R = 0.287)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption over the previous 7 days.
Typical Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how Butter Microwave Popcorn changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Butter Microwave Popcorn on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Butter Microwave Popcorn for each month of the year.
This chart shows how Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 24% higher than normal after a total of 1 serving Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=0.001, 95% CI 0.061 to 0.513) that Butter Microwave Popcorn has a weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.29) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 0.34 serving Butter Microwave Popcorn per day. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 0.033333333333333 serving Butter Microwave Popcorn per day. Overall Mood is generally 3% lower than normal after a total of 0.033333333333333 serving of Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption over the previous 7 days. Overall Mood is generally 24% higher after a total of 0.34 serving of Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Butter Microwave Popcorn and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Butter Microwave Popcorn values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Butter Microwave Popcorn daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Butter Microwave Popcorn Pre-Processing
Butter Microwave Popcorn measurement values below 0 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. Butter Microwave Popcorn measurement values above 40 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Butter Microwave Popcorn data were unrecorded 0 serving measurement values.
Butter Microwave Popcorn Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Butter Microwave Popcorn would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Butter Microwave Popcorn could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
8 raw Butter Microwave Popcorn measurements with 10 changes spanning 354 days from 2013-03-10 to 2014-02-27 were used in this analysis. 14171 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1271 changes spanning 2662 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-08-19 were used in this analysis.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Overall Mood is statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. After treatment, a 27.4% increase (0.81781507908957 out of 5) from the mean baseline 2.9794655276781 out of 5 was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 29.9%. The observed change was 0.91772592908638 times the standard deviation. A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would may have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value

Data Sources

Butter Microwave Popcorn data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 372 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0533
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.22630642175826
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient 0.287
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 0.34 serving
Total Butter Microwave Popcorn consumption Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 0.033 serving
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 372
Optimal Pearson Product 0.21284589680037
P Value 0.001
Statistical Significance 0.0968
Strength of Relationship 0.22630642175826
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-07-16
Number of Pairs 372
Number of Raw Predictor Measurements ( Including Tags, Joins, and Children) 8
Baseline Relative Standard Deviation of Outcome Measurements 29.9
Experiment Duration (days) 428
Number of Raw Outcome Measurements 14051
Z Score 0.91772592908638
Last Analysis 2019-07-16
Experiment Began 2013-02-08 00:00:00
Experiment Ended 2014-04-12 04:57:00
P Value 0.001
Predictor Category Foods
Duration of Action (h) 168
Onset Delay (h) 0.5
Significance 0.0968
Outcome Relative Standard Deviation at Baseline 29.9
Outcome Standard Deviation at Baseline 0.89113214868379/5
Outcome Mean at Baseline 2.9794655276781/5
Average Followup Change From Baseline 27.4&
Average Absolute Followup Change From Baseline 3.7972806067677/5
Z- Score 0.91772592908638
Average Predictor Treatment Value 1.24serving over 7 days

Butter Microwave Popcorn Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Butter Microwave Popcorn
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-15
Duration of Action 14 days
Kurtosis 42.278623614886
Maximum Allowed Value 40 serving
Mean 0.022535 serving
Median 0 serving
Minimum Allowed Value 0 serving
Number of Changes 10
Number of Correlations 39
Number of Measurements 8
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.14862570351512
Unit Serving
UPC 028190009399
Variable ID 1709
Variance 0.022089599745365

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-19
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8691023963331
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9073 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1271
Number of Correlations 4600
Number of Measurements 14171
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52064074107278
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.27106678126481

Tracking Butter Microwave Popcorn

Record your Butter Microwave Popcorn daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn