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This individual's Inflammatory Pain is generally lowest after a daily total of 0 grams of Carbs intake over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Carbs intake over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Carbs intake is usually followed by an increase in Inflammatory Pain. (R = 0.169)
Typical values for Inflammatory Pain following a given amount of Carbs intake over the previous 7 days.
Typical Carbs intake seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Inflammatory Pain value.
This chart shows how your Carbs changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Carbs on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Carbs for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Inflammatory Pain changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Inflammatory Pain on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Inflammatory Pain for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Inflammatory Pain is generally 6% lower than normal after 0 grams Carbs per 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a low degree of confidence (p=0.12488842471311, 95% CI -0.07 to 0.408) that Carbs has a weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.17) with Inflammatory Pain. The highest quartile of Inflammatory Pain measurements were observed following an average 1 grams Carbs per day. The lowest quartile of Inflammatory Pain measurements were observed following an average 1462.0277777778 g Carbs per day.Inflammatory Pain is generally 6% lower than normal after a total of 1462.0277777778 grams of Carbs intake over the previous 7 days. Inflammatory Pain is generally 3% higher after a total of 1 grams of Carbs intake over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Carbs and Inflammatory Pain. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Carbs values most likely to produce optimal Inflammatory Pain values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Carbs daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Inflammatory Pain daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Carbs Pre-Processing
Carbs measurement values below 1 grams were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Carbs. No missing data filling value was defined for Carbs so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Carbs Analysis Settings

Inflammatory Pain Pre-Processing
Inflammatory Pain measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Inflammatory Pain measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Inflammatory Pain so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Inflammatory Pain Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Carbs would produce an observable change in Inflammatory Pain. It was assumed that Carbs could produce an observable change in Inflammatory Pain for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
1685 raw Carbs measurements with 524 changes spanning 2109 days from 2013-01-12 to 2018-10-22 were used in this analysis. 99 raw Inflammatory Pain measurements with 38 changes spanning 2272 days from 2013-01-12 to 2019-04-03 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Carbs data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Inflammatory Pain data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between Carbs intake and Inflammatory Pain

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 61 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Carbs intake values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Carbs intake and Inflammatory Pain is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Carbs intake
Effect Variable Name Inflammatory Pain
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.1154
Confidence Level low
Confidence Interval 0.23866205029792
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.169
Critical T Value 1.671
Total Carbs intake Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Inflammatory Pain 1 grams
Total Carbs intake Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Inflammatory Pain 1 grams
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 61
Optimal Pearson Product 0.053525179944762
P Value 0.12488842471311
Statistical Significance 0.5679
Strength of Relationship 0.23866205029792
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-04

Carbs Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Carbs
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-05
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 7.1411124449315
Mean 298.78 grams
Median 265.5 grams
Minimum Allowed Value 1 grams
Number of Changes 524
Number of Correlations 256
Number of Measurements 1685
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 160.36096264167
Unit Grams
UPC 817047020287
Variable ID 1285
Variance 25715.638339363

Inflammatory Pain Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Inflammatory Pain
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-05
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 2.8406315919497
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.1566 out of 5
Median 2.2 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 38
Number of Correlations 245
Number of Measurements 99
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.56637793947802
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 753970618156
Variable ID 1340
Variance 0.32078397032737

Tracking Carbs

Record your Carbs daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Inflammatory Pain

Record your Inflammatory Pain daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn