This individual's Overall Mood is generally highest after a daily total of 120 minutes of Cardio Heart Rate Zone over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Cardio Heart Rate Zone over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Cardio Heart Rate Zone is usually followed by an decrease in Overall Mood. (R = -0.014)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Cardio Heart Rate Zone over the previous 7 days.
Typical Cardio Heart Rate Zone seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how your Cardio Heart Rate Zone changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Cardio Heart Rate Zone on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Cardio Heart Rate Zone for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 0% higher than normal after a total of 2 hours Cardio Heart Rate Zone over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=0.22529569996503, 95% CI -0.046 to 0.018) that Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes has a very weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.01) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 2 hours Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes per day. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 130.08579881657 min Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes per day.Overall Mood is generally 0% lower than normal after a total of 2 hours of Cardio Heart Rate Zone over the previous 7 days. Overall Mood is generally 0% higher after a total of 2 hours of Cardio Heart Rate Zone over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Cardio Heart Rate Zone. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Cardio Heart Rate Zone Pre-Processing
Cardio Heart Rate Zone measurement values below 0 microseconds were assumed erroneous and removed. Cardio Heart Rate Zone measurement values above 7 days were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Cardio Heart Rate Zone data were unrecorded 0 microseconds measurement values.
Cardio Heart Rate Zone Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
1162 raw Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes measurements with 1238 changes spanning 1466 days from 2015-03-29 to 2019-04-03 were used in this analysis. 2087 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1239 changes spanning 2604 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-06-22 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly negative relationship between Cardio Heart Rate Zone and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 1318 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Cardio Heart Rate Zone values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 6 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 3 feel that any relationship observed between Cardio Heart Rate Zone and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Cardio Heart Rate Zone
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0132
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.032003625888495
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient -0.014
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Cardio Heart Rate Zone Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 2 hours
Total Cardio Heart Rate Zone Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 2 hours
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size very weakly negative
Number of Paired Measurements 1318
Optimal Pearson Product 0.00074270911981911
P Value 0.22529569996503
Statistical Significance 0.7692
Strength of Relationship 0.032003625888495
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-27

Cardio Heart Rate Zone Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Cardio Heart Rate Zone Minutes
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-15
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 3.1951071398943
Maximum Allowed Value 7 days
Mean 18 minutes
Median 8 minutes
Minimum Allowed Value 0 microseconds
Number of Changes 1238
Number of Correlations 1876
Number of Measurements 1162
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 19.463294464905
Unit Minutes
Variable ID 5211881
Variance 378.8198314276

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-23
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8401472143203
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9087 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1239
Number of Correlations 4028
Number of Measurements 2087
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52355936824404
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.2741144120761

Tracking Cardio Heart Rate Zone

Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Cardio Heart Rate Zone. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn