This individual's Psoriasis Severity is generally lowest after a daily total of 16 index of Chenopods Pollen over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Chenopods Pollen over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Chenopods Pollen is usually followed by an increase in Psoriasis Severity. (R = 0.349)
Typical values for Psoriasis Severity following a given amount of Chenopods Pollen over the previous 7 days.
Typical Chenopods Pollen seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Psoriasis Severity value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how your Chenopods Pollen changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Chenopods Pollen on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Chenopods Pollen for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Psoriasis Severity changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Psoriasis Severity on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Psoriasis Severity for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Psoriasis Severity is generally 11.14% lower than normal after 16.3 index Chenopods Pollen Index per 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=0.0029170135392043, 95% CI 0.024 to 0.674) that Chenopods Pollen Index has a moderately positive predictive relationship (R=0.35) with Psoriasis Severity. The highest quartile of Psoriasis Severity measurements were observed following an average 11 index Chenopods Pollen Index per day. The lowest quartile of Psoriasis Severity measurements were observed following an average 6.7 index Chenopods Pollen Index per day.Psoriasis Severity is generally 11.14% lower than normal after a total of 6.7 index of Chenopods Pollen over the previous 7 days. Psoriasis Severity is generally 10.69% higher after a total of 11 index of Chenopods Pollen over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Chenopods Pollen Index and Psoriasis Severity. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Chenopods Pollen Index values most likely to produce optimal Psoriasis Severity values.

Participant Instructions

Grant access to your weather and air quality data on the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
Record your Psoriasis Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Chenopods Pollen Pre-Processing
Chenopods Pollen measurement values below 0 index were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Chenopods Pollen. No missing data filling value was defined for Chenopods Pollen so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Chenopods Pollen Analysis Settings

Psoriasis Severity Pre-Processing
Psoriasis Severity measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Psoriasis Severity measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Psoriasis Severity so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Psoriasis Severity Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Chenopods Pollen Index would produce an observable change in Psoriasis Severity. It was assumed that Chenopods Pollen Index could produce an observable change in Psoriasis Severity for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
66 raw Chenopods Pollen Index measurements with 41 changes spanning 61 days from 2018-08-10 to 2018-10-11 were used in this analysis. 879 raw Psoriasis Severity measurements with 192 changes spanning 2356 days from 2013-01-13 to 2019-06-27 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Chenopods Pollen Index data was primarily collected using Weather. Automatically import temperature, humidity, hours of daylight, air quality and pollen count.

Psoriasis Severity data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a moderately positive relationship between Chenopods Pollen and Psoriasis Severity

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 49 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Chenopods Pollen values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Chenopods Pollen and Psoriasis Severity is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Chenopods Pollen
Effect Variable Name Psoriasis Severity
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.1563
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.32523202992387
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.349
Critical T Value 1.676
Total Chenopods Pollen Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Psoriasis Severity 11 index
Total Chenopods Pollen Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Psoriasis Severity 6.7 index
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size moderately positive
Number of Paired Measurements 49
Optimal Pearson Product 0.29282204810829
P Value 0.0029170135392043
Statistical Significance 0.44770880146562
Strength of Relationship 0.32523202992387
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-29

Chenopods Pollen Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Chenopods Pollen Index
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-11
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 2.9046716675901
Mean 8.6412 index
Median 8.7 index
Minimum Allowed Value 0 index
Number of Changes 41
Number of Measurements 66
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 5.1925398976065
Unit Index
Variable ID 6039201
Variance 26.962470588235

Psoriasis Severity Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Psoriasis Severity
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-28
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 3.4682301972368
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.5815 out of 5
Median 2 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 192
Number of Correlations 1298
Number of Measurements 879
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.85582756446353
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
Variable ID 1421
Variance 0.73244082009558

Tracking Chenopods Pollen

Grant access to your weather and air quality data on the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Tracking Psoriasis Severity

Record your Psoriasis Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn