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This individual's Psoriasis Severity is generally lowest after a daily total of 0 serving of Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption is usually followed by an increase in Psoriasis Severity. (R = 0.113)
Typical values for Psoriasis Severity following a given amount of Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption over the previous 7 days.
Typical Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Psoriasis Severity value.
This chart shows how your Cinnamon Toasted Almonds changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Cinnamon Toasted Almonds on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Cinnamon Toasted Almonds for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Psoriasis Severity changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Psoriasis Severity on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Psoriasis Severity for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Psoriasis Severity is generally -4% lower than normal after 0 serving Cinnamon Toasted Almonds per 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a low degree of confidence (p=0.31892914457314, 95% CI -0.333 to 0.559) that Cinnamon Toasted Almonds has a weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.11) with Psoriasis Severity. The highest quartile of Psoriasis Severity measurements were observed following an average 1 serving Cinnamon Toasted Almonds per day. The lowest quartile of Psoriasis Severity measurements were observed following an average 1.0833333333333 serving Cinnamon Toasted Almonds per day.Psoriasis Severity is generally 4% lower than normal after a total of 1.0833333333333 serving of Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption over the previous 7 days. Psoriasis Severity is generally 3% higher after a total of 1 serving of Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Cinnamon Toasted Almonds and Psoriasis Severity. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Cinnamon Toasted Almonds values most likely to produce optimal Psoriasis Severity values.

Participant Instructions

Get MyFitnessPal here and use it to record your Cinnamon Toasted Almonds. Once you have a MyFitnessPal account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
Record your Psoriasis Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Cinnamon Toasted Almonds Pre-Processing
Cinnamon Toasted Almonds measurement values below 0 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. Cinnamon Toasted Almonds measurement values above 30 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Cinnamon Toasted Almonds data were unrecorded 0 serving measurement values.
Cinnamon Toasted Almonds Analysis Settings

Psoriasis Severity Pre-Processing
Psoriasis Severity measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Psoriasis Severity measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Psoriasis Severity so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Psoriasis Severity Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Cinnamon Toasted Almonds would produce an observable change in Psoriasis Severity. It was assumed that Cinnamon Toasted Almonds could produce an observable change in Psoriasis Severity for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
6 raw Cinnamon Toasted Almonds measurements with 8 changes spanning 35 days from 2013-01-16 to 2013-02-19 were used in this analysis. 799 raw Psoriasis Severity measurements with 171 changes spanning 2271 days from 2013-01-13 to 2019-04-03 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Cinnamon Toasted Almonds data was primarily collected using MyFitnessPal. Lose weight with MyFitnessPal, the fastest and easiest-to-use calorie counter for iPhone and iPad. With the largest food database of any iOS calorie counter (over 3,000,000 foods), and amazingly fast food and exercise entry.

Psoriasis Severity data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption and Psoriasis Severity

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 23 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption and Psoriasis Severity is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption
Effect Variable Name Psoriasis Severity
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0198
Confidence Level low
Confidence Interval 0.44557762716706
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.113
Critical T Value 1.714
Total Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Psoriasis Severity 1 serving
Total Cinnamon Toasted Almonds consumption Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Psoriasis Severity 1.083 serving
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 23
Optimal Pearson Product -0.0069015558126451
P Value 0.31892914457314
Statistical Significance 0.0102
Strength of Relationship 0.44557762716706
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-04

Cinnamon Toasted Almonds Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Cinnamon Toasted Almonds
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-27
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 15.338947135078
Maximum Allowed Value 30 serving
Mean 0.11594 serving
Median 0 serving
Minimum Allowed Value 0 serving
Number of Changes 8
Number of Correlations 44
Number of Measurements 6
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.40352242754414
Unit Serving
Variable ID 1641
Variance 0.16283034953112

Psoriasis Severity Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Psoriasis Severity
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-03
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 3.1549034544257
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.4113 out of 5
Median 2 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 171
Number of Correlations 1168
Number of Measurements 799
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.68642653295782
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
Variable ID 1421
Variance 0.4711813851485

Tracking Cinnamon Toasted Almonds

Get MyFitnessPal here and use it to record your Cinnamon Toasted Almonds. Once you have a MyFitnessPal account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Tracking Psoriasis Severity

Record your Psoriasis Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn