This individual's Overall Mood is generally 1.5% higher after 1.15 count Cloudy Urine over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Cloudy Urine over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Cloudy Urine is usually followed by an increase in Overall Mood. (R = 0.012)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Cloudy Urine over the previous 7 days.
Typical Cloudy Urine seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how Cloudy Urine changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Cloudy Urine on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Cloudy Urine for each month of the year.
This chart shows how Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 0% higher than normal after a total of 1 count Cloudy Urine over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=0.24945234482108, 95% CI -0.059 to 0.083) that Cloudy Urine has a very weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.01) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 0.04 count Cloudy Urine per day. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 0.05 count Cloudy Urine per day. Overall Mood is generally 1% lower than normal after a total of 0.05 count of Cloudy Urine over the previous 7 days. Overall Mood is generally 0% higher after a total of 0.04 count of Cloudy Urine over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Cloudy Urine and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Cloudy Urine values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Cloudy Urine daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Cloudy Urine Pre-Processing
Cloudy Urine measurement values below 0 count were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Cloudy Urine. It was assumed that any gaps in Cloudy Urine data were unrecorded 0 count measurement values.
Cloudy Urine Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Cloudy Urine would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Cloudy Urine could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
282 raw Cloudy Urine measurements with 20 changes spanning 1750 days from 2014-11-05 to 2019-08-22 were used in this analysis. 14182 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1273 changes spanning 2665 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-08-22 were used in this analysis.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Overall Mood is not statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. This suggests that the Cloudy Urine value does not have a significant influence on the Overall Mood value.After treatment, a 1.5% increase (0.04172127475792 out of 5) from the mean baseline 2.8621804399991 out of 5 was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 12.5%. The observed change was 0.11616831142263 times the standard deviation. A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would may have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value

Data Sources

Cloudy Urine data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly positive relationship between Cloudy Urine and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 1536 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Cloudy Urine values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Cloudy Urine and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Potential Issues Identified During Analysis
The average of effect values expected to be lower than average (2.903901714757) are actually higher than the average (2.8638101772943). This suggests a weak relationship or insufficient data.
The average of effect values expected to be higher than average (2.8621804399991) are actually lower than the average (2.8638101772943). This suggests a weak relationship or insufficient data.
The low effect change is greater than the high effect change.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Cloudy Urine
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0065
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.070865035850222
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient 0.012
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Cloudy Urine Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 0.04 count
Total Cloudy Urine Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 0.05 count
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size very weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 1553
Optimal Pearson Product -0.00035874334446355
P Value 0.24945234482108
Statistical Significance 0.5196
Strength of Relationship 0.070865035850222
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-07
Number of Pairs 1553
Number of Raw Predictor Measurements ( Including Tags, Joins, and Children) 264
Baseline Relative Standard Deviation of Outcome Measurements 12.5
Experiment Duration (days) 1781
Number of Raw Outcome Measurements 14111
Z Score 0.11616831142263
Last Analysis 2019-08-07
Experiment Began 2014-10-06 15:31:00
Experiment Ended 2019-08-22 21:00:00
P Value 0.24945234482108
Predictor Category Symptoms
Duration of Action (h) 168
Significance 0.5196
Outcome Relative Standard Deviation at Baseline 12.5
Outcome Standard Deviation at Baseline 0.35914505640128/5
Outcome Mean at Baseline 2.8621804399991/5
Average Followup Change From Baseline 1.5&
Average Absolute Followup Change From Baseline 2.903901714757/5
Z- Score 0.11616831142263
Average Predictor Treatment Value 1.15count over 7 days

Cloudy Urine Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Cloudy Urine
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-22
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 159.7346110318
Number of Changes 20
Number of Correlations 302
Number of Measurements 282
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.078390292299968
Unit Yes/No
Variable ID 88477
Variance 0.0061450379268745

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-22
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8592239252433
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9065 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1273
Number of Correlations 4592
Number of Measurements 14182
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52145727417909
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.27191768879429

Tracking Cloudy Urine

Record your Cloudy Urine daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn