cause image
gauge image
effect image

This individual's Jitteriness is generally lowest after a daily total of 4 serving of Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption over the previous 7 days.
Join This Study
Go To Interactive Study
Blue represents the sum of Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption is usually followed by an increase in Jitteriness. (R = 0.382)
Typical values for Jitteriness following a given amount of Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption over the previous 7 days.
Typical Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Jitteriness value.
This chart shows how your Coffee - Brewed From Grounds changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Coffee - Brewed From Grounds on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Coffee - Brewed From Grounds for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Jitteriness changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Jitteriness on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Jitteriness for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Jitteriness is generally 8% lower than normal after 4 serving Coffee - Brewed From Grounds per 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a low degree of confidence (p=0.15135888673301, 95% CI -0.033 to 0.797) that Coffee - Brewed From Grounds has a moderately positive predictive relationship (R=0.38) with Jitteriness. The highest quartile of Jitteriness measurements were observed following an average 10.64 serving Coffee - Brewed From Grounds per day. The lowest quartile of Jitteriness measurements were observed following an average 4.5454545454545 serving Coffee - Brewed From Grounds per day.Jitteriness is generally 8% lower than normal after a total of 4.5454545454545 serving of Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption over the previous 7 days. Jitteriness is generally 16% higher after a total of 10.64 serving of Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Coffee and Jitteriness. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Coffee - Brewed From Grounds values most likely to produce optimal Jitteriness values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Coffee - Brewed From Grounds daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Jitteriness daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Coffee - Brewed From Grounds Pre-Processing
Coffee - Brewed From Grounds measurement values below 0 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. Coffee - Brewed From Grounds measurement values above 30 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Coffee - Brewed From Grounds data were unrecorded 0 serving measurement values.
Coffee - Brewed From Grounds Analysis Settings

Jitteriness Pre-Processing
Jitteriness measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Jitteriness measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Jitteriness so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Jitteriness Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Coffee - Brewed From Grounds would produce an observable change in Jitteriness. It was assumed that Coffee - Brewed From Grounds could produce an observable change in Jitteriness for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
104 raw Coffee - Brewed From Grounds measurements with 546 changes spanning 2263 days from 2013-01-19 to 2019-04-01 were used in this analysis. 20 raw Jitteriness measurements with 9 changes spanning 1541 days from 2013-08-30 to 2017-11-19 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Coffee - Brewed From Grounds data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Jitteriness data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a moderately positive relationship between Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption and Jitteriness

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 18 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 2 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption and Jitteriness is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption
Effect Variable Name Jitteriness
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.064
Confidence Level low
Confidence Interval 0.41515897283724
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.382
Critical T Value 1.734
Total Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Jitteriness 10.64 serving
Total Coffee - Brewed From Grounds consumption Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Jitteriness 4.545 serving
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size moderately positive
Number of Paired Measurements 18
Optimal Pearson Product 0.30435805386411
P Value 0.15135888673301
Statistical Significance 0.0819
Strength of Relationship 0.41515897283724
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-04

Coffee - Brewed From Grounds Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Coffee - Brewed From Grounds
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-31
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 331.25397164162
Maximum Allowed Value 30 serving
Mean 1.3709 serving
Median 0 serving
Minimum Allowed Value 0 serving
Number of Changes 546
Number of Correlations 151
Number of Measurements 104
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 2.6714270593359
Unit Serving
UPC 039517182893
Variable ID 1653
Variance 7.1365225333519

Jitteriness Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Jitteriness
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-26
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 1.3248966789512
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 1.3611 out of 5
Median 1 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 9
Number of Correlations 443
Number of Measurements 20
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.4791400248348
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
Variable ID 1361
Variance 0.22957516339869

Tracking Coffee - Brewed From Grounds

Record your Coffee - Brewed From Grounds daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Jitteriness

Record your Jitteriness daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Join This Study

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn