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This individual's Overall Mood is generally highest after a daily total of 60 seconds of Cold Shower over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Cold Shower over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Cold Shower is usually followed by an increase in Overall Mood. (R = 0.016)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Cold Shower over the previous 7 days.
Typical Cold Shower seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
This chart shows how your Cold Shower changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Cold Shower on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Cold Shower for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 0% higher than normal after a total of 60 seconds Cold Shower over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=0.36630413977362, 95% CI -0.04 to 0.072) that Cold Shower (min) has a very weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.02) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 49 seconds Cold Shower (min) per day. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 1.1677852348993 min Cold Shower (min) per day.Overall Mood is generally 0% lower than normal after a total of 70 seconds of Cold Shower over the previous 7 days. Overall Mood is generally 0% higher after a total of 49 seconds of Cold Shower over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Cold Shower and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Cold Shower (min) values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Cold Shower daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Cold Shower Pre-Processing
Cold Shower measurement values below 0 seconds were assumed erroneous and removed. Cold Shower measurement values above 7 days were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Cold Shower data were unrecorded 0 seconds measurement values.
Cold Shower Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Cold Shower (min) would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Cold Shower (min) could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
416 raw Cold Shower (min) measurements with 37 changes spanning 498 days from 2017-02-22 to 2018-07-05 were used in this analysis. 13635 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1192 changes spanning 2522 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-04-01 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Cold Shower (min) data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly positive relationship between Cold Shower and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 579 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Cold Shower values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Cold Shower and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Cold Shower
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0198
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.055618848038394
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.016
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Cold Shower Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 49 seconds
Total Cold Shower Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 70 seconds
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size very weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 579
Optimal Pearson Product -0.0022002172682585
P Value 0.36630413977362
Statistical Significance 0.7913
Strength of Relationship 0.055618848038394
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-04

Cold Shower Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Cold Shower (min)
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-01-25
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 239.06394748676
Maximum Allowed Value 7 days
Mean 2 seconds
Median 0 seconds
Minimum Allowed Value 0 seconds
Number of Changes 37
Number of Correlations 217
Number of Measurements 416
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.28464166961256
Unit Minutes
UPC 854410004635
Variable ID 113361
Variance 0.081020880079828

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-01
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8454669666675
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9135 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1192
Number of Correlations 4086
Number of Measurements 13635
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52653757307699
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.2772418158618

Tracking Cold Shower

Record your Cold Shower daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn