This individual's Overall Mood is generally 3.1% higher after 56.5 tablets Creatine over the previous 21 days.


Abstract
I couldn't determine the relationship yet because value_predicting_high_outcome: 23.75 is greater than maximum value:20 of default unit: tablets for correlation of user for cause: Creatine (tablets) and effect: Overall Mood
I generally need a month of data and 30 measurements in order to perform an analysis.
54 raw Creatine (tablets) measurements with 30 changes spanning 210 days from 20130918 to 20140416 were used in this analysis.
14182 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1273 changes spanning 2665 days from 20120506 to 20190822 were used in this analysis.
If you haven't already, please add a reminder and start tracking. Please create a ticket at http://help.quantimo.do if you need assistance. I love you!
I generally need a month of data and 30 measurements in order to perform an analysis.
54 raw Creatine (tablets) measurements with 30 changes spanning 210 days from 20130918 to 20140416 were used in this analysis.
14182 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1273 changes spanning 2665 days from 20120506 to 20190822 were used in this analysis.
If you haven't already, please add a reminder and start tracking. Please create a ticket at http://help.quantimo.do if you need assistance. I love you!
Objective
The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Creatine and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Creatine (tablets) values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.
Participant Instructions
Record your Creatine (tablets) daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Design
This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.
Data Analysis
Creatine (tablets) PreProcessing
Creatine (tablets) measurement values below 0 tablets were assumed erroneous and removed. Creatine (tablets) measurement values above 20 tablets were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Creatine (tablets) data were unrecorded 0 tablets measurement values.
Overall Mood PreProcessing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Creatine (tablets) would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Creatine (tablets) could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 21 days after the stimulus event.
Data Quantity
54 raw Creatine (tablets) measurements with 30 changes spanning 210 days from 20130918 to 20140416 were used in this analysis. 14182 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1273 changes spanning 2665 days from 20120506 to 20190822 were used in this analysis.
Creatine (tablets) measurement values below 0 tablets were assumed erroneous and removed. Creatine (tablets) measurement values above 20 tablets were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Creatine (tablets) data were unrecorded 0 tablets measurement values.

Overall Mood PreProcessing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Creatine (tablets) would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Creatine (tablets) could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 21 days after the stimulus event.

Data Quantity
54 raw Creatine (tablets) measurements with 30 changes spanning 210 days from 20130918 to 20140416 were used in this analysis. 14182 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1273 changes spanning 2665 days from 20120506 to 20190822 were used in this analysis.
Statistical Significance
Using a twotailed ttest with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Overall Mood is statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. After treatment, a 3.1% increase (0.077529334431881 out of 5) from the mean baseline 2.504785344108 out of 5 was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 20.6%. The observed change was 0.14993508797131 times the standard deviation. A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate prepost experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would may have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a pvalue
Data Sources
Creatine (tablets) data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.
Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.
Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.
Limitations
The accuracy of this study may be limited by the fact that value_predicting_high_outcome: 23.75 is greater than maximum value:20 of default unit: tablets for correlation of user for cause: Creatine (tablets) and effect: Overall Mood. A greater amount of data and more variance in the data would help to resolve this issue.
As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out nonexistent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.
The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between Creatine and Overall Mood
Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 260 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Creatine values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.
Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.
Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that timeprecedence was taken into account in all calculations.
Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.
Plausibility
A plausible biochemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 2 feel that any relationship observed between Creatine and Overall Mood is coincidental.
Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.
Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.
Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.
As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out nonexistent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.
The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between Creatine and Overall Mood
Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 260 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Creatine values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.
Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.
Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that timeprecedence was taken into account in all calculations.
Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.
Plausibility
A plausible biochemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 2 feel that any relationship observed between Creatine and Overall Mood is coincidental.
Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.
Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.
Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.
Relationship Statistics
Property  Value 

Cause Variable Name  Creatine 
Effect Variable Name  Overall Mood 
Sinn Predictive Coefficient  0.0906 
Confidence Level  high 
Confidence Interval  0.083710539019597 
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient  0.101 
Critical T Value  1.646 
Total Creatine Over Previous 21 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood  23.75 tablets 
Total Creatine Over Previous 21 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood  20.863 tablets 
Duration of Action  21 days 
Effect Size  weakly positive 
Number of Paired Measurements  260 
Optimal Pearson Product  0.0083673622807311 
P Value  0.0049025825181545 
Statistical Significance  0.7389 
Strength of Relationship  0.083710539019597 
Study Type  individual 
Analysis Performed At  20190813 
Number of Pairs  260 
Number of Raw Predictor Measurements ( Including Tags, Joins, and Children)  54 
Baseline Relative Standard Deviation of Outcome Measurements  20.6 
Experiment Duration (days)  291 
Number of Raw Outcome Measurements  14145 
Z Score  0.14993508797131 
Last Analysis  20190813 
Experiment Began  20130819 16:03:00 
Experiment Ended  20140606 16:30:00 
P Value  0.0049025825181545 
Predictor Category  Treatments 
Duration of Action (h)  504 
Onset Delay (h)  0.5 
Significance  0.7389 
Outcome Relative Standard Deviation at Baseline  20.6 
Outcome Standard Deviation at Baseline  0.51708599688632/5 
Outcome Mean at Baseline  2.504785344108/5 
Average Followup Change From Baseline  3.1& 
Average Absolute Followup Change From Baseline  2.5823146785399/5 
Z Score  0.14993508797131 
Average Predictor Treatment Value  56.5tablets over 21 days 
Creatine (tablets) Statistics
Property  Value 

Variable Name  Creatine (tablets) 
Aggregation Method  SUM 
Analysis Performed At  20190822 
Duration of Action  21 days 
Kurtosis  49.872647342991 
Maximum Allowed Value  20 serving 
Mean  0.116 serving 
Median  0 serving 
Minimum Allowed Value  0 serving 
Number of Changes  30 
Number of Correlations  147 
Number of Measurements  54 
Onset Delay  30 minutes 
Standard Deviation  0.8248857536153 
Unit  Serving 
UPC  748927023855 
Variable ID  108482 
Variance  0.68043650651747 
Overall Mood Statistics
Property  Value 

Variable Name  Overall Mood 
Aggregation Method  MEAN 
Analysis Performed At  20190822 
Duration of Action  24 hours 
Kurtosis  6.8592239252433 
Maximum Allowed Value  5 out of 5 
Mean  2.9065 out of 5 
Median  3 out of 5 
Minimum Allowed Value  1 out of 5 
Number of Changes  1273 
Number of Correlations  4592 
Number of Measurements  14182 
Onset Delay  0 seconds 
Standard Deviation  0.52145727417909 
Unit  1 to 5 Rating 
UPC  767674073845 
Variable ID  1398 
Variance  0.27191768879429 
Tracking Creatine (tablets)
Record your Creatine (tablets) daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.Tracking Overall Mood
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Principal Investigator  Mike Sinn