This individual's Deep Sleep Duration is generally highest after a daily total of 0 milligrams of Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake is usually followed by an decrease in Deep Sleep Duration. (R = -0.02)
Typical values for Deep Sleep Duration following a given amount of Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake over the previous 7 days.
Typical Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Deep Sleep Duration value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how Curcumin 95 By Jarrow changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Curcumin 95 By Jarrow on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Curcumin 95 By Jarrow for each month of the year.
This chart shows how Deep Sleep Duration changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Deep Sleep Duration on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Deep Sleep Duration for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Deep Sleep Duration is generally 0.42% higher than normal after a total of 0 milligrams Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a medium degree of confidence (p=0.37636071582487, 95% CI -4.833 to 4.793) that Curcumin 95 By Jarrow has a very weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.02) with Deep Sleep Duration. The highest quartile of Deep Sleep Duration measurements were observed following an average 2 milligrams Curcumin 95 By Jarrow per day. The lowest quartile of Deep Sleep Duration measurements were observed following an average 2841.9948186528 mg Curcumin 95 By Jarrow per day.Deep Sleep Duration is generally 0.87% lower than normal after a total of 2841.9948186528 milligrams of Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake over the previous 7 days. Deep Sleep Duration is generally 0.42% higher after a total of 2 milligrams of Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Curcumin 95 By Jarrow and Deep Sleep Duration. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Curcumin 95 By Jarrow values most likely to produce optimal Deep Sleep Duration values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Curcumin 95 By Jarrow daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Deep Sleep Duration. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Curcumin 95 By Jarrow Pre-Processing
Curcumin 95 By Jarrow measurement values below 0 milligrams were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Curcumin 95 By Jarrow. It was assumed that any gaps in Curcumin 95 By Jarrow data were unrecorded 0 milligrams measurement values.
Curcumin 95 By Jarrow Analysis Settings

Deep Sleep Duration Pre-Processing
Deep Sleep Duration measurement values below 60 seconds were assumed erroneous and removed. Deep Sleep Duration measurement values above 7 days were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Deep Sleep Duration so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Deep Sleep Duration Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Curcumin 95 By Jarrow would produce an observable change in Deep Sleep Duration. It was assumed that Curcumin 95 By Jarrow could produce an observable change in Deep Sleep Duration for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
625 raw Curcumin 95 By Jarrow measurements with 158 changes spanning 1449 days from 2015-07-11 to 2019-06-30 were used in this analysis. 391 raw Deep Sleep Duration measurements with 307 changes spanning 420 days from 2018-05-06 to 2019-06-30 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Curcumin 95 By Jarrow data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Deep Sleep Duration data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly negative relationship between Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake and Deep Sleep Duration

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 391 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake and Deep Sleep Duration is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Potential Issues Identified During Analysis
The average of effect values expected to be lower than average (78.354330708661) are actually higher than the average (77.680306905371). This suggests a weak relationship or insufficient data.
The average of effect values expected to be higher than average (77.356060606061) are actually lower than the average (77.680306905371). This suggests a weak relationship or insufficient data.
The low effect change is greater than the high effect change.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake
Effect Variable Name Deep Sleep Duration
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0198
Confidence Level medium
Confidence Interval 4.8133250333575
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient -0.02
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Deep Sleep Duration 2 milligrams
Total Curcumin 95 By Jarrow intake Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Deep Sleep Duration 2 milligrams
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size very weakly negative
Number of Paired Measurements 391
Optimal Pearson Product -0.00069665223121486
P Value 0.37636071582487
Statistical Significance 0.99119774246659
Strength of Relationship 4.8133250333575
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-07-02

Curcumin 95 By Jarrow Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Curcumin 95 By Jarrow
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-07-02
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 5.8243114784936
Mean 202.11 milligrams
Median 0 milligrams
Minimum Allowed Value 0 milligrams
Number of Changes 158
Number of Correlations 117
Number of Measurements 625
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 274.27646332092
Unit Milligrams
UPC 790011140764
Variable ID 5926104
Variance 75227.578331834

Deep Sleep Duration Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Deep Sleep Duration
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-07-01
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 3.0359623344059
Maximum Allowed Value 7 days
Mean 70 minutes
Median 72 minutes
Minimum Allowed Value 60 seconds
Number of Changes 307
Number of Measurements 391
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 31.262599866283
Unit Minutes
Variable ID 6054282
Variance 977.35015039934

Tracking Curcumin 95 By Jarrow

Record your Curcumin 95 By Jarrow daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Deep Sleep Duration

Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Deep Sleep Duration. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn