This individual's Inflammatory Pain is generally lowest after a daily total of 84 minutes of Deep Sleep Duration over the previous 24 hours.
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Blue represents the sum of Deep Sleep Duration over the previous 24 hours
An increase in 24 hours cumulative Deep Sleep Duration is usually followed by an increase in Inflammatory Pain. (R = 0.243)
Typical values for Inflammatory Pain following a given amount of Deep Sleep Duration over the previous 24 hours.
Typical Deep Sleep Duration seen over the previous 24 hours preceding the given Inflammatory Pain value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how Deep Sleep Duration changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Deep Sleep Duration on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Deep Sleep Duration for each month of the year.
This chart shows how Inflammatory Pain changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Inflammatory Pain on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Inflammatory Pain for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Inflammatory Pain is generally 1.97% lower than normal after 84 minutes Deep Sleep Duration per 24 hours. This individual's data suggests with a low degree of confidence (p=0.3729105388523, 95% CI -0.233 to 0.719) that Deep Sleep Duration has a weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.24) with Inflammatory Pain. The highest quartile of Inflammatory Pain measurements were observed following an average 93 minutes Deep Sleep Duration per day. The lowest quartile of Inflammatory Pain measurements were observed following an average 84.290322580645 min Deep Sleep Duration per day.Inflammatory Pain is generally 1.97% lower than normal after a total of 84 minutes of Deep Sleep Duration over the previous 24 hours. Inflammatory Pain is generally 2.1% higher after a total of 93 minutes of Deep Sleep Duration over the previous 24 hours.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Deep Sleep Duration and Inflammatory Pain. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Deep Sleep Duration values most likely to produce optimal Inflammatory Pain values.

Participant Instructions

Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Deep Sleep Duration. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
Record your Inflammatory Pain daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Deep Sleep Duration Pre-Processing
Deep Sleep Duration measurement values below 60 seconds were assumed erroneous and removed. Deep Sleep Duration measurement values above 7 days were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Deep Sleep Duration so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Deep Sleep Duration Analysis Settings

Inflammatory Pain Pre-Processing
Inflammatory Pain measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Inflammatory Pain measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Inflammatory Pain so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Inflammatory Pain Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Deep Sleep Duration would produce an observable change in Inflammatory Pain. It was assumed that Deep Sleep Duration could produce an observable change in Inflammatory Pain for as much as 1 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
391 raw Deep Sleep Duration measurements with 307 changes spanning 420 days from 2018-05-06 to 2019-06-30 were used in this analysis. 162 raw Inflammatory Pain measurements with 68 changes spanning 2360 days from 2013-01-12 to 2019-06-30 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Deep Sleep Duration data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

Inflammatory Pain data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between Deep Sleep Duration and Inflammatory Pain

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 60 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Deep Sleep Duration values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Deep Sleep Duration and Inflammatory Pain is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Deep Sleep Duration
Effect Variable Name Inflammatory Pain
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.17
Confidence Level low
Confidence Interval 0.47560660648985
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.243
Critical T Value 1.671
Total Deep Sleep Duration Over Previous 24 hours Before ABOVE Average Inflammatory Pain 93 minutes
Total Deep Sleep Duration Over Previous 24 hours Before BELOW Average Inflammatory Pain 84 minutes
Duration of Action 24 hours
Effect Size weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 60
Optimal Pearson Product 0.074573427024929
P Value 0.3729105388523
Statistical Significance 0.69958084441188
Strength of Relationship 0.47560660648985
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-07-02

Deep Sleep Duration Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Deep Sleep Duration
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-07-01
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 3.0359623344059
Maximum Allowed Value 7 days
Mean 70 minutes
Median 72 minutes
Minimum Allowed Value 60 seconds
Number of Changes 307
Number of Measurements 391
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 31.262599866283
Unit Minutes
Variable ID 6054282
Variance 977.35015039934

Inflammatory Pain Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Inflammatory Pain
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-30
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 3.6463138790869
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.4064 out of 5
Median 2.2 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 68
Number of Correlations 376
Number of Measurements 162
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.88179153896702
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 753970618156
Variable ID 1340
Variance 0.77755631819383

Tracking Deep Sleep Duration

Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Deep Sleep Duration. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Tracking Inflammatory Pain

Record your Inflammatory Pain daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn