This individual's Overall Mood is generally highest after a daily total of 2 count of Digestive Advantage Probiotic over the previous 7 days.
|
|
Abstract
This individual's Overall Mood is generally 1% higher than normal after a total of 2 count Digestive Advantage Probiotic over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=0.10334587379681, 95% CI -0.097 to -0.015) that Digestive Advantage Probiotic has a very weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.06) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 2.79 count Digestive Advantage Probiotic per day. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 2.9036697247706 count Digestive Advantage Probiotic per day.Overall Mood is generally 1% lower than normal after a total of 2.9036697247706 count of Digestive Advantage Probiotic over the previous 7 days. Overall Mood is generally 1% higher after a total of 2.79 count of Digestive Advantage Probiotic over the previous 7 days.
Objective
The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Digestive Advantage Probiotic and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Digestive Advantage Probiotic values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.
Participant Instructions
Record your Digestive Advantage Probiotic daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Design
This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.
Data Analysis
Digestive Advantage Probiotic Pre-Processing
Digestive Advantage Probiotic measurement values below 0 count were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Digestive Advantage Probiotic. It was assumed that any gaps in Digestive Advantage Probiotic data were unrecorded 0 count measurement values.
Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Digestive Advantage Probiotic would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Digestive Advantage Probiotic could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Data Quantity
394 raw Digestive Advantage Probiotic measurements with 106 changes spanning 898 days from 2016-05-02 to 2018-10-16 were used in this analysis. 13635 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1192 changes spanning 2522 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-04-01 were used in this analysis.
Digestive Advantage Probiotic measurement values below 0 count were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Digestive Advantage Probiotic. It was assumed that any gaps in Digestive Advantage Probiotic data were unrecorded 0 count measurement values.
|
Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
|
Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Digestive Advantage Probiotic would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Digestive Advantage Probiotic could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
|
Data Quantity
394 raw Digestive Advantage Probiotic measurements with 106 changes spanning 898 days from 2016-05-02 to 2018-10-16 were used in this analysis. 13635 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1192 changes spanning 2522 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-04-01 were used in this analysis.
Data Sources
Digestive Advantage Probiotic data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.
Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.
Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.
Limitations
As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.
The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly negative relationship between Digestive Advantage Probiotic and Overall Mood
Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 847 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Digestive Advantage Probiotic values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.
Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.
Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.
Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.
Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Digestive Advantage Probiotic and Overall Mood is coincidental.
Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.
Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.
Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.
The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly negative relationship between Digestive Advantage Probiotic and Overall Mood
Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 847 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Digestive Advantage Probiotic values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.
Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.
Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.
Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.
Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Digestive Advantage Probiotic and Overall Mood is coincidental.
Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.
Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.
Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.
Relationship Statistics
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Cause Variable Name | Digestive Advantage Probiotic |
| Effect Variable Name | Overall Mood |
| Sinn Predictive Coefficient | 0.0649 |
| Confidence Level | high |
| Confidence Interval | 0.041122716999719 |
| Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient | -0.056 |
| Critical T Value | 1.646 |
| Total Digestive Advantage Probiotic Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood | 2.79 count |
| Total Digestive Advantage Probiotic Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood | 2.904 count |
| Duration of Action | 7 days |
| Effect Size | very weakly negative |
| Number of Paired Measurements | 847 |
| Optimal Pearson Product | 0.0019862004081049 |
| P Value | 0.10334587379681 |
| Statistical Significance | 0.9982 |
| Strength of Relationship | 0.041122716999719 |
| Study Type | individual |
| Analysis Performed At | 2019-04-05 |
Digestive Advantage Probiotic Statistics
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Variable Name | Digestive Advantage Probiotic |
| Aggregation Method | SUM |
| Analysis Performed At | 2019-03-31 |
| Duration of Action | 7 days |
| Kurtosis | 29.925442930528 |
| Mean | 0.13147 count |
| Median | 0 count |
| Minimum Allowed Value | 0 count |
| Number of Changes | 106 |
| Number of Correlations | 172 |
| Number of Measurements | 394 |
| Onset Delay | 30 minutes |
| Standard Deviation | 0.37001476657694 |
| Unit | Count |
| UPC | 19779799 |
| Variable ID | 5926113 |
| Variance | 0.13691092748499 |
Overall Mood Statistics
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Variable Name | Overall Mood |
| Aggregation Method | MEAN |
| Analysis Performed At | 2019-04-01 |
| Duration of Action | 24 hours |
| Kurtosis | 6.8454669666675 |
| Maximum Allowed Value | 5 out of 5 |
| Mean | 2.9135 out of 5 |
| Median | 3 out of 5 |
| Minimum Allowed Value | 1 out of 5 |
| Number of Changes | 1192 |
| Number of Correlations | 4086 |
| Number of Measurements | 13635 |
| Onset Delay | 0 seconds |
| Standard Deviation | 0.52653757307699 |
| Unit | 1 to 5 Rating |
| UPC | 767674073845 |
| Variable ID | 1398 |
| Variance | 0.2772418158618 |
Tracking Digestive Advantage Probiotic
Record your Digestive Advantage Probiotic daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.Tracking Overall Mood
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
|
Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn