This individual's Pain is generally lowest after a daily total of 6 count of Digestive Advantage Probiotic over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Digestive Advantage Probiotic over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Digestive Advantage Probiotic is usually followed by an decrease in Pain. (R = -0.139)
Typical values for Pain following a given amount of Digestive Advantage Probiotic over the previous 7 days.
Typical Digestive Advantage Probiotic seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Pain value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how your Digestive Advantage Probiotic changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Digestive Advantage Probiotic on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Digestive Advantage Probiotic for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Pain changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Pain on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Pain for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Pain is generally 12.61% lower than normal after 6 count Digestive Advantage Probiotic per 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a medium degree of confidence (p=0.22866818481888, 95% CI -0.27 to -0.008) that Digestive Advantage Probiotic has a weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.14) with Pain. The highest quartile of Pain (yes/no) measurements were observed following an average 4.21 count Digestive Advantage Probiotic per day. The lowest quartile of Pain (yes/no) measurements were observed following an average 5.1981132075472 count Digestive Advantage Probiotic per day.Pain is generally 12.61% lower than normal after a total of 5.1981132075472 count of Digestive Advantage Probiotic over the previous 7 days. Pain is generally 26.09% higher after a total of 4.21 count of Digestive Advantage Probiotic over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Digestive Advantage Probiotic and Pain. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Digestive Advantage Probiotic values most likely to produce optimal Pain values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Digestive Advantage Probiotic daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Pain daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Digestive Advantage Probiotic Pre-Processing
Digestive Advantage Probiotic measurement values below 0 count were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Digestive Advantage Probiotic. It was assumed that any gaps in Digestive Advantage Probiotic data were unrecorded 0 count measurement values.
Digestive Advantage Probiotic Analysis Settings

Pain Pre-Processing
Pain measurement values below 0 were assumed erroneous and removed. Pain measurement values above 1 were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Pain data were unrecorded 0 measurement values.
Pain Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Digestive Advantage Probiotic would produce an observable change in Pain (yes/no). It was assumed that Digestive Advantage Probiotic could produce an observable change in Pain (yes/no) for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
394 raw Digestive Advantage Probiotic measurements with 119 changes spanning 898 days from 2016-05-02 to 2018-10-16 were used in this analysis. 218 raw Pain (yes/no) measurements with 60 changes spanning 328 days from 2018-08-02 to 2019-06-27 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Digestive Advantage Probiotic data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Pain (yes/no) data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly negative relationship between Digestive Advantage Probiotic and Pain

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 135 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Digestive Advantage Probiotic values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Digestive Advantage Probiotic and Pain is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Digestive Advantage Probiotic
Effect Variable Name Pain
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.111
Confidence Level medium
Confidence Interval 0.13060948655178
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient -0.139
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Digestive Advantage Probiotic Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Pain 4.21 count
Total Digestive Advantage Probiotic Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Pain 5.198 count
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly negative
Number of Paired Measurements 135
Optimal Pearson Product 0.048532187884909
P Value 0.22866818481888
Statistical Significance 0.79846123912054
Strength of Relationship 0.13060948655178
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-29

Digestive Advantage Probiotic Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Digestive Advantage Probiotic
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-22
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 7.5556991221432
Mean 0.39875 count
Median 0 count
Minimum Allowed Value 0 count
Number of Changes 119
Number of Correlations 168
Number of Measurements 394
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.55207265667969
Unit Count
UPC 19779799
Variable ID 5926113
Variance 0.30478421825337

Pain Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Pain (yes/no)
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-28
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 1.3764428261987
Maximum Allowed Value 1
Mean 0.35318
Number of Changes 60
Number of Correlations 273
Number of Measurements 218
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.47816528247335
Unit Yes/No
Variable ID 1634021
Variance 0.22864203736282

Tracking Digestive Advantage Probiotic

Record your Digestive Advantage Probiotic daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Pain

Record your Pain daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn