This individual's Overall Mood is generally highest after a daily total of 0 serving of Fruity Pebbles consumption over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Fruity Pebbles consumption over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Fruity Pebbles consumption is usually followed by an decrease in Overall Mood. (R = -0.147)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Fruity Pebbles consumption over the previous 7 days.
Typical Fruity Pebbles consumption seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how Fruity Pebbles changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Fruity Pebbles on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Fruity Pebbles for each month of the year.
This chart shows how Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 1% higher than normal after a total of 0 serving Fruity Pebbles consumption over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a medium degree of confidence (p=0.048358771862667, 95% CI -0.6 to 0.306) that Fruity Pebbles (serving) has a weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.15) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 0.09 serving Fruity Pebbles (serving) per day. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 0.2093023255814 serving Fruity Pebbles (serving) per day. Overall Mood is generally 14% lower than normal after a total of 0.2093023255814 serving of Fruity Pebbles consumption over the previous 7 days. Overall Mood is generally 1% higher after a total of 0.09 serving of Fruity Pebbles consumption over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Fruity Pebbles and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Fruity Pebbles (serving) values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Get MyFitnessPal here and use it to record your Fruity Pebbles. Once you have a MyFitnessPal account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Fruity Pebbles Pre-Processing
Fruity Pebbles measurement values below 0 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. Fruity Pebbles measurement values above 30 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Fruity Pebbles data were unrecorded 0 serving measurement values.
Fruity Pebbles Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Fruity Pebbles (serving) would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Fruity Pebbles (serving) could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
3 raw Fruity Pebbles (serving) measurements with 4 changes spanning 177 days from 2013-03-03 to 2013-08-27 were used in this analysis. 14019 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1249 changes spanning 2620 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-07-09 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Fruity Pebbles (serving) data was primarily collected using MyFitnessPal. Lose weight with MyFitnessPal, the fastest and easiest-to-use calorie counter for iPhone and iPad. With the largest food database of any iOS calorie counter (over 3,000,000 foods), and amazingly fast food and exercise entry.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly negative relationship between Fruity Pebbles consumption and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 192 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Fruity Pebbles consumption values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Fruity Pebbles consumption and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Fruity Pebbles consumption
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0025
Confidence Level medium
Confidence Interval 0.45283927700017
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient -0.147
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Fruity Pebbles consumption Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 0.09 serving
Total Fruity Pebbles consumption Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 0.209 serving
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly negative
Number of Paired Measurements 192
Optimal Pearson Product 0.034467184436708
P Value 0.048358771862667
Statistical Significance 0.0172
Strength of Relationship 0.45283927700017
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-07-08

Fruity Pebbles Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Fruity Pebbles (serving)
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-05
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 86.249140254766
Maximum Allowed Value 30 serving
Mean 0.022599 serving
Median 0 serving
Minimum Allowed Value 0 serving
Number of Changes 4
Number of Correlations 35
Number of Measurements 3
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.18324109366571
Unit Serving
UPC 786173826004
Variable ID 109222
Variance 0.033577298407807

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-07-09
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8457368686411
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9083 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1249
Number of Correlations 3620
Number of Measurements 14019
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52278567060155
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.27330485738631

Tracking Fruity Pebbles

Get MyFitnessPal here and use it to record your Fruity Pebbles. Once you have a MyFitnessPal account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn