This individual's Overall Mood is generally 1.5% higher after 26.5 drops Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) over the previous 21 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) over the previous 21 days
An increase in 21 days cumulative Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) is usually followed by an increase in Overall Mood. (R = 0.03)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) over the previous 21 days.
Typical Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) seen over the previous 21 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) for each month of the year.
This chart shows how Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 1% higher than normal after a total of 20 drops Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) over the previous 21 days. This individual's data suggests with a medium degree of confidence (p=0.088881005702224, 95% CI -0.015 to 0.075) that Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) has a very weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.03) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 17.95 drops Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) per day. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 19.333333333333 drops Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) per day. Overall Mood is generally 1% lower than normal after a total of 19.333333333333 drops of Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) over the previous 21 days. Overall Mood is generally 1% higher after a total of 17.95 drops of Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) over the previous 21 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Grapefruit Seed Extract and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) Pre-Processing
Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) measurement values below 0 drops were assumed erroneous and removed. Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) measurement values above 100 drops were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) data were unrecorded 0 drops measurement values.
Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 21 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
162 raw Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) measurements with 82 changes spanning 178 days from 2017-01-06 to 2017-07-03 were used in this analysis. 14188 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1275 changes spanning 2667 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-08-24 were used in this analysis.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Overall Mood is statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. After treatment, a 1.5% increase (0.043212364694641 out of 5) from the mean baseline 2.8538958352808 out of 5 was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 8.8%. The observed change was 0.17260173389366 times the standard deviation. A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would may have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value

Data Sources

Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly positive relationship between Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 258 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Potential Issues Identified During Analysis
The average of effect values expected to be lower than average (2.9035261897974745) are actually higher than the average (2.8838765069100214). This suggests a weak relationship or insufficient data.
The average of effect values expected to be higher than average (2.8556996031468853) are actually lower than the average (2.8838765069100214). This suggests a weak relationship or insufficient data.
The low effect change is greater than the high effect change.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE)
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0271
Confidence Level medium
Confidence Interval 0.045427507323572
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient 0.03
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) Over Previous 21 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 17.95 drops
Total Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) Over Previous 21 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 19.333 drops
Duration of Action 21 days
Effect Size very weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 258
Optimal Pearson Product -0.0028300706092368
P Value 0.088881005702224
Statistical Significance 0.9048
Strength of Relationship 0.045427507323572
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-10
Number of Pairs 258
Number of Raw Predictor Measurements ( Including Tags, Joins, and Children) 162
Baseline Relative Standard Deviation of Outcome Measurements 8.8
Experiment Duration (days) 259
Number of Raw Outcome Measurements 14137
Z Score 0.17260173389366
Last Analysis 2019-08-10
Experiment Began 2016-12-07 02:00:00
Experiment Ended 2017-08-23 02:30:00
P Value 0.088881005702224
Predictor Category Treatments
Duration of Action (h) 504
Onset Delay (h) 0.5
Significance 0.9048
Outcome Relative Standard Deviation at Baseline 8.8
Outcome Standard Deviation at Baseline 0.25035880995996/5
Outcome Mean at Baseline 2.8538958352808/5
Average Followup Change From Baseline 1.5&
Average Absolute Followup Change From Baseline 2.8971081999754/5
Z- Score 0.17260173389366
Average Predictor Treatment Value 26.5drops over 21 days

Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE)
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-14
Duration of Action 21 days
Kurtosis 47.775587304863
Maximum Allowed Value 100 drops
Mean 0.080367 drops
Median 0 drops
Minimum Allowed Value 0 drops
Number of Changes 82
Number of Correlations 151
Number of Measurements 162
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.56135427706904
Unit Drops
UPC 728177010003
Variable ID 5957423
Variance 0.31511862438371

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-24
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8567678535043
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9063 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1275
Number of Correlations 4592
Number of Measurements 14188
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52114513969638
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.27159225662916

Tracking Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE)

Record your Grapefruit Seed Extract (GSE) daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn