cause image
gauge image
effect image

This individual's Overall Mood is generally highest after an average of 100 beats per minute of Heart Rate (Pulse) over the previous 7 days.
Join This Study
Go To Interactive Study
Blue represents the mean of Heart Rate (Pulse) over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Heart Rate (Pulse) is usually followed by an increase in Overall Mood. (R = 0.315)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Heart Rate (Pulse) over the previous 7 days.
Typical Heart Rate (Pulse) seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
This chart shows how your Heart Rate (Pulse) changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Heart Rate (Pulse) on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Heart Rate (Pulse) for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 8% higher than normal after an average of 103 beats per minute Heart Rate (Pulse) over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=1.3936605862702E-17, 95% CI 0.234 to 0.396) that Heart Rate (Pulse) has a moderately positive predictive relationship (R=0.32) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 102.88 beats per minute Heart Rate (Pulse). The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 88.571615882331 bpm Heart Rate (Pulse).Overall Mood is generally 6% lower than normal after an average of 88.571615882331 beats per minute of Heart Rate (Pulse) over the previous 7 days. Overall Mood is generally 8% higher after an average of 102.88 beats per minute of Heart Rate (Pulse) over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Heart Rate and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Heart Rate (Pulse) values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Get Withings here and use it to record your Heart Rate (Pulse). Once you have a Withings account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Heart Rate (Pulse) Pre-Processing
Heart Rate (Pulse) measurement values below 0 beats per minute were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Heart Rate (Pulse). No missing data filling value was defined for Heart Rate (Pulse) so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Heart Rate (Pulse) Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Heart Rate (Pulse) would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Heart Rate (Pulse) could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
15805 raw Heart Rate (Pulse) measurements with 663 changes spanning 2239 days from 2012-12-16 to 2019-02-01 were used in this analysis. 13597 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1188 changes spanning 2514 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-03-25 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Heart Rate (Pulse) data was primarily collected using Withings. Withings creates smart products and apps to take care of yourself and your loved ones in a new and easy way. Discover the Withings Pulse, Wi-Fi Body Scale, and Blood Pressure Monitor.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a moderately positive relationship between Heart Rate (Pulse) and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 596 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Heart Rate (Pulse) values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 5 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 2 feel that any relationship observed between Heart Rate (Pulse) and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Heart Rate (Pulse)
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.341
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.080854525747167
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.315
Critical T Value 1.646
Average Heart Rate ( Pulse) Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 102.88 beats per minute
Average Heart Rate ( Pulse) Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 88.572 beats per minute
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size moderately positive
Number of Paired Measurements 596
Optimal Pearson Product 0.27587794991378
P Value 1.3936605862702E-17
Statistical Significance 1
Strength of Relationship 0.080854525747167
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-28

Heart Rate (Pulse) Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Heart Rate (Pulse)
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-19
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 3.1677287096038
Mean 92.019 beats per minute
Median 92.416666666667 beats per minute
Minimum Allowed Value 0 beats per minute
Number of Changes 663
Number of Correlations 2215
Number of Measurements 15805
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 16.571067637136
Unit Beats per Minute
UPC 851697006178
Variable ID 1342
Variance 274.60028263454

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-25
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8400143353123
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.914 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1188
Number of Correlations 4051
Number of Measurements 13597
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52696033590904
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.27768719562137

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn