This individual's Guiltiness is generally lowest after a daily total of 15 minutes of Hot Bath over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Hot Bath over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Hot Bath is usually followed by an increase in Guiltiness. (R = 0.139)
Typical values for Guiltiness following a given amount of Hot Bath over the previous 7 days.
Typical Hot Bath seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Guiltiness value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how your Hot Bath changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Hot Bath on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Hot Bath for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Guiltiness changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Guiltiness on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Guiltiness for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Guiltiness is generally 4% lower than normal after 15 minutes Hot Bath per 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=6.9081666056842E-5, 95% CI 0.041 to 0.237) that Hot Bath has a weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.14) with Guiltiness. The highest quartile of Guiltiness measurements were observed following an average 23 minutes Hot Bath per day. The lowest quartile of Guiltiness measurements were observed following an average 16.732348111658 min Hot Bath per day.Guiltiness is generally 4% lower than normal after a total of 17 minutes of Hot Bath over the previous 7 days. Guiltiness is generally 8% higher after a total of 23 minutes of Hot Bath over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Hot Bath and Guiltiness. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Hot Bath values most likely to produce optimal Guiltiness values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Hot Bath daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Guiltiness daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Hot Bath Pre-Processing
Hot Bath measurement values below 0 microseconds were assumed erroneous and removed. Hot Bath measurement values above 7 days were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Hot Bath data were unrecorded 0 microseconds measurement values.
Hot Bath Analysis Settings

Guiltiness Pre-Processing
Guiltiness measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Guiltiness measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Guiltiness so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Guiltiness Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Hot Bath would produce an observable change in Guiltiness. It was assumed that Hot Bath could produce an observable change in Guiltiness for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
624 raw Hot Bath measurements with 243 changes spanning 1884 days from 2014-04-30 to 2019-06-27 were used in this analysis. 2973 raw Guiltiness measurements with 716 changes spanning 2048 days from 2013-11-17 to 2019-06-28 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Hot Bath data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Guiltiness data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between Hot Bath and Guiltiness

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 965 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Hot Bath values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Hot Bath and Guiltiness is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Hot Bath
Effect Variable Name Guiltiness
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.1578
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.098343266235356
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.139
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Hot Bath Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Guiltiness 23 minutes
Total Hot Bath Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Guiltiness 17 minutes
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 965
Optimal Pearson Product 0.032532574124461
P Value 6.9081666056842E-5
Statistical Significance 0.9995
Strength of Relationship 0.098343266235356
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-28

Hot Bath Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Hot Bath
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-28
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 12.326567535697
Maximum Allowed Value 7 days
Mean 98 seconds
Median 0 microseconds
Minimum Allowed Value 0 microseconds
Number of Changes 243
Number of Correlations 282
Number of Measurements 624
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 4.8751669688852
Unit Minutes
Variable ID 85325
Variance 23.76725297451

Guiltiness Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Guiltiness
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-28
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 3.0693668747023
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.1685 out of 5
Median 2 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 716
Number of Correlations 5425
Number of Measurements 2973
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.93526347749501
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
Variable ID 1335
Variance 0.87471777233607

Tracking Hot Bath

Record your Hot Bath daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Guiltiness

Record your Guiltiness daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn