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This individual's Psoriasis Severity is generally lowest after an average of 0 of House Smells Moldy over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the mean of House Smells Moldy over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative House Smells Moldy is usually followed by an increase in Psoriasis Severity. (R = 0.149)
Typical values for Psoriasis Severity following a given amount of House Smells Moldy over the previous 7 days.
Typical House Smells Moldy seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Psoriasis Severity value.
This chart shows how your House Smells Moldy changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for House Smells Moldy on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for House Smells Moldy for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Psoriasis Severity changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Psoriasis Severity on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Psoriasis Severity for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Psoriasis Severity is generally 2.3% lower than normal after 0 House Smells Moldy per 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=0.00014841461581185, 95% CI 0.029 to 0.269) that House Smells Moldy has a weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.15) with Psoriasis Severity. The highest quartile of Psoriasis Severity measurements were observed following an average 0.11 House Smells Moldy. The lowest quartile of Psoriasis Severity measurements were observed following an average 0.036818851251841 yes/no House Smells Moldy.Psoriasis Severity is generally 2.3% lower than normal after an average of 0.036818851251841 of House Smells Moldy over the previous 7 days. Psoriasis Severity is generally 9.34% higher after an average of 0.11 of House Smells Moldy over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between House Smells Moldy and Psoriasis Severity. Additionally, we attempt to determine the House Smells Moldy values most likely to produce optimal Psoriasis Severity values.

Participant Instructions

Record your House Smells Moldy daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Psoriasis Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

House Smells Moldy Pre-Processing
House Smells Moldy measurement values below 0 were assumed erroneous and removed. House Smells Moldy measurement values above 1 were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in House Smells Moldy data were unrecorded 0 measurement values.
House Smells Moldy Analysis Settings

Psoriasis Severity Pre-Processing
Psoriasis Severity measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Psoriasis Severity measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Psoriasis Severity so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Psoriasis Severity Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in House Smells Moldy would produce an observable change in Psoriasis Severity. It was assumed that House Smells Moldy could produce an observable change in Psoriasis Severity for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
471 raw House Smells Moldy measurements with 44 changes spanning 693 days from 2017-05-31 to 2019-04-24 were used in this analysis. 819 raw Psoriasis Severity measurements with 182 changes spanning 2293 days from 2013-01-13 to 2019-04-25 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

House Smells Moldy data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Psoriasis Severity data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between House Smells Moldy and Psoriasis Severity

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 546 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their House Smells Moldy values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between House Smells Moldy and Psoriasis Severity is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name House Smells Moldy
Effect Variable Name Psoriasis Severity
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.126
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.12010389035904
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.149
Critical T Value 1.646
Average House Smells Moldy Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Psoriasis Severity 0.11
Average House Smells Moldy Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Psoriasis Severity 0.037
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 546
Optimal Pearson Product 0.06442718559327
P Value 0.00014841461581185
Statistical Significance 0.84536159646349
Strength of Relationship 0.12010389035904
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-29

House Smells Moldy Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name House Smells Moldy
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-24
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 14.437794312924
Maximum Allowed Value 1
Mean 0.061196
Number of Changes 44
Number of Correlations 151
Number of Measurements 471
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.23840045939079
Unit Yes/No
UPC 846351077465
Variable ID 5968649
Variance 0.056834779037738

Psoriasis Severity Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Psoriasis Severity
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-29
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 3.0175711708268
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.4375 out of 5
Median 2 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 182
Number of Correlations 979
Number of Measurements 819
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.71149834279832
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
Variable ID 1421
Variance 0.50622989180476

Tracking House Smells Moldy

Record your House Smells Moldy daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Psoriasis Severity

Record your Psoriasis Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn