This individual's Overall Mood is generally 2.4% higher after 0.423 milliliters Iberogast over the previous 21 days.
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Blue represents the mean of Iberogast over the previous 21 days
An increase in 21 days cumulative Iberogast is usually followed by an increase in Overall Mood. (R = 0.176)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Iberogast over the previous 21 days.
Typical Iberogast seen over the previous 21 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how Iberogast changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Iberogast on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Iberogast for each month of the year.
This chart shows how Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 1% higher than normal after an average of 0.375 milliliters Iberogast over the previous 21 days. This individual's data suggests with a medium degree of confidence (p=0.03457947456085, 95% CI 0.126 to 0.226) that Iberogast (mL) has a weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.18) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 0.31 milliliters Iberogast (mL). The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 0.24794745484401 mL Iberogast (mL). Overall Mood is generally 2% lower than normal after an average of 0.24794745484401 milliliters of Iberogast over the previous 21 days. Overall Mood is generally 1% higher after an average of 0.31 milliliters of Iberogast over the previous 21 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Iberogast and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Iberogast (mL) values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Iberogast daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Iberogast Pre-Processing
Iberogast measurement values below 0 milliliters were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Iberogast. It was assumed that any gaps in Iberogast data were unrecorded 0 milliliters measurement values.
Iberogast Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Iberogast (mL) would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Iberogast (mL) could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 21 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
159 raw Iberogast (mL) measurements with 96 changes spanning 166 days from 2016-11-02 to 2017-04-17 were used in this analysis. 14188 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1275 changes spanning 2667 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-08-24 were used in this analysis.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Overall Mood is statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. After treatment, a 2.4% increase (0.067051148427445 out of 5) from the mean baseline 2.8166572915071 out of 5 was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 8.1%. The observed change was 0.29496712671294 times the standard deviation. A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would may have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value

Data Sources

Iberogast (mL) data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between Iberogast and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 246 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Iberogast values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Iberogast and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Iberogast
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.1647
Confidence Level medium
Confidence Interval 0.04973619305403
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient 0.176
Critical T Value 1.646
Average Iberogast Over Previous 21 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 0.31 milliliters
Average Iberogast Over Previous 21 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 0.248 milliliters
Duration of Action 21 days
Effect Size weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 246
Optimal Pearson Product 0.060222467007621
P Value 0.03457947456085
Statistical Significance 0.936
Strength of Relationship 0.04973619305403
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-10
Number of Pairs 246
Number of Raw Predictor Measurements ( Including Tags, Joins, and Children) 159
Baseline Relative Standard Deviation of Outcome Measurements 8.1
Experiment Duration (days) 247
Number of Raw Outcome Measurements 14137
Z Score 0.29496712671294
Last Analysis 2019-08-10
Experiment Began 2016-10-03 01:00:00
Experiment Ended 2017-06-07 03:30:00
P Value 0.03457947456085
Predictor Category Treatments
Duration of Action (h) 504
Onset Delay (h) 0.5
Significance 0.936
Outcome Relative Standard Deviation at Baseline 8.1
Outcome Standard Deviation at Baseline 0.22731735964835/5
Outcome Mean at Baseline 2.8166572915071/5
Average Followup Change From Baseline 2.4&
Average Absolute Followup Change From Baseline 2.8837084399346/5
Z- Score 0.29496712671294
Average Predictor Treatment Value 0.423mL over 21 days

Iberogast Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Iberogast (mL)
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-07-31
Duration of Action 21 days
Kurtosis 37.415624463297
Mean 0.025379 milliliters
Median 0 milliliters
Minimum Allowed Value 0 milliliters
Number of Changes 96
Number of Correlations 123
Number of Measurements 159
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.15730083749476
Unit Milliliters
UPC 855357001008
Variable ID 5954893
Variance 0.024743553476552

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-24
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8567678535043
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9063 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1275
Number of Correlations 4592
Number of Measurements 14188
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52114513969638
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.27159225662916

Tracking Iberogast

Record your Iberogast daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn