This individual's Overall Mood is generally highest after an average of 2 out of 5 of Jitteriness over the previous 24 hours.
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Blue represents the mean of Jitteriness over the previous 24 hours
An increase in 24 hours cumulative Jitteriness is usually followed by an increase in Overall Mood. (R = 0.64)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Jitteriness over the previous 24 hours.
Typical Jitteriness seen over the previous 24 hours preceding the given Overall Mood value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how your Jitteriness changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Jitteriness on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Jitteriness for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 18% higher than normal after an average of 2 out of 5 Jitteriness over the previous 24 hours. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=0.0082040044201769, 95% CI 0.223 to 1.057) that Jitteriness has a strongly positive predictive relationship (R=0.64) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 1.75 out of 5 Jitteriness. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 1.1 /5 Jitteriness.Overall Mood is generally 11% lower than normal after an average of 1.1 out of 5 of Jitteriness over the previous 24 hours. Overall Mood is generally 18% higher after an average of 1.75 out of 5 of Jitteriness over the previous 24 hours.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Jitteriness and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Jitteriness values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Jitteriness daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Jitteriness Pre-Processing
Jitteriness measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Jitteriness measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Jitteriness so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Jitteriness Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Jitteriness would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Jitteriness could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 1 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
20 raw Jitteriness measurements with 9 changes spanning 1541 days from 2013-08-30 to 2017-11-19 were used in this analysis. 13972 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1239 changes spanning 2605 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-06-23 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Jitteriness data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a strongly positive relationship between Jitteriness and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 16 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Jitteriness values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 6 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 4 feel that any relationship observed between Jitteriness and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Jitteriness
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0334
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.41722995780444
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.64
Critical T Value 1.746
Average Jitteriness Over Previous 24 hours Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 1.75 out of 5
Average Jitteriness Over Previous 24 hours Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 1.1 out of 5
Duration of Action 24 hours
Effect Size strongly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 16
Optimal Pearson Product 0.8790421848755
P Value 0.0082040044201769
Statistical Significance 0.0521
Strength of Relationship 0.41722995780444
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-07-01

Jitteriness Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Jitteriness
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-05
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 1.3248966789512
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 1.3611 out of 5
Median 1 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 9
Number of Correlations 443
Number of Measurements 20
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.4791400248348
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
Variable ID 1361
Variance 0.22957516339869

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-24
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8430028091389
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9087 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1239
Number of Correlations 4028
Number of Measurements 13972
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52343854670043
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.27398791217186

Tracking Jitteriness

Record your Jitteriness daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn