This individual's Overall Mood is generally 2.9% lower after 88.9 milliliters Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash over the previous 10 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash over the previous 10 days
An increase in 10 days cumulative Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash is usually followed by an decrease in Overall Mood. (R = -0.022)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash over the previous 10 days.
Typical Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash seen over the previous 10 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash for each month of the year.
This chart shows how Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 1% higher than normal after a total of 61 milliliters Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash over the previous 10 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=0.21309081026849, 95% CI -0.087 to 0.043) that Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash has a very weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.02) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 64.29 milliliters Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash per day. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 67.028169014085 mL Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash per day. Overall Mood is generally 1% lower than normal after a total of 67.028169014085 milliliters of Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash over the previous 10 days. Overall Mood is generally 1% higher after a total of 64.29 milliliters of Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash over the previous 10 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash Pre-Processing
Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash measurement values below 0 milliliters were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash. It was assumed that any gaps in Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash data were unrecorded 0 milliliters measurement values.
Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 10 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
309 raw Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash measurements with 218 changes spanning 563 days from 2018-02-07 to 2019-08-24 were used in this analysis. 14190 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1276 changes spanning 2668 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-08-25 were used in this analysis.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Overall Mood is not statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. This suggests that the Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash value does not have a significant influence on the Overall Mood value.After treatment, a 2.9% decrease (-0.084342446694826 out of 5) from the mean baseline 2.8649971582836 out of 5 was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 11.8%. The observed change was 0.24913499445429 times the standard deviation. A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would may have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value

Data Sources

Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly negative relationship between Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 502 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.022
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.065153128143072
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient -0.022
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash Over Previous 10 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 64.29 milliliters
Total Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash Over Previous 10 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 67.028 milliliters
Duration of Action 10 days
Effect Size very weakly negative
Number of Paired Measurements 523
Optimal Pearson Product 0.00091536073161282
P Value 0.21309081026849
Statistical Significance 0.9995
Strength of Relationship 0.065153128143072
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-07
Number of Pairs 523
Number of Raw Predictor Measurements ( Including Tags, Joins, and Children) 483
Baseline Relative Standard Deviation of Outcome Measurements 11.8
Experiment Duration (days) 594
Number of Raw Outcome Measurements 14110
Z Score 0.24913499445428627
Last Analysis 2019-08-07
Experiment Began 2018-01-08 02:13:21
Experiment Ended 2019-08-25 17:00:00
P Value 0.21309081026849
Predictor Category Treatments
Duration of Action (h) 240
Significance 0.9995
Outcome Relative Standard Deviation at Baseline 11.8
Outcome Standard Deviation at Baseline 0.33854114665654633/5
Outcome Mean at Baseline 2.864997158283604/5
Average Followup Change From Baseline -2.9&
Average Absolute Followup Change From Baseline 2.7806547115887774/5
Z- Score 0.24913499445428627
Average Predictor Treatment Value 88.9mL over 10 days

Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-25
Duration of Action 10 days
Kurtosis 3.315007956392854
Mean 6.428599999999999 milliliters
Median 0 milliliters
Minimum Allowed Value 0 milliliters
Number of Changes 218
Number of Correlations 116
Number of Measurements 309
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 9.845243111717087
Unit Milliliters
UPC 312547428255
Variable ID 5983282
Variance 96.92881192881276

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-25
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.857106484477509
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9061 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1276
Number of Correlations 4589
Number of Measurements 14190
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.5210978398366957
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.2715429586824706

Tracking Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash

Record your Listerine Antiseptic Mouthwash daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn