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This individual's Body Fat is generally highest after a daily total of 1 serving of Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption is usually followed by an increase in Body Fat. (R = 0.215)
Typical values for Body Fat following a given amount of Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption over the previous 7 days.
Typical Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Body Fat value.
This chart shows how your Mcdonalds Coke, Large changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Mcdonalds Coke, Large on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Mcdonalds Coke, Large for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Body Fat changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Body Fat on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Body Fat for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Body Fat is generally 7% higher than normal after a total of 1 serving Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a medium degree of confidence (p=0.034499970105423, 95% CI -0.522 to 0.952) that Mcdonalds Coke, Large has a weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.22) with Body Fat. The highest quartile of Body Fat measurements were observed following an average 0.31 serving Mcdonalds Coke, Large per day. The lowest quartile of Body Fat measurements were observed following an average 0.083333333333333 serving Mcdonalds Coke, Large per day.Body Fat is generally 2% lower than normal after a total of 0.083333333333333 serving of Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption over the previous 7 days. Body Fat is generally 7% higher after a total of 0.31 serving of Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Mcdonalds Coke, Large and Body Fat. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Mcdonalds Coke, Large values most likely to produce optimal Body Fat values.

Participant Instructions

Get MyFitnessPal here and use it to record your Mcdonalds Coke, Large. Once you have a MyFitnessPal account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Body Fat. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Mcdonalds Coke, Large Pre-Processing
Mcdonalds Coke, Large measurement values below 0 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. Mcdonalds Coke, Large measurement values above 30 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Mcdonalds Coke, Large data were unrecorded 0 serving measurement values.
Mcdonalds Coke, Large Analysis Settings

Body Fat Pre-Processing
No minimum allowed measurement value was defined for Body Fat. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Body Fat. No missing data filling value was defined for Body Fat so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Body Fat Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Mcdonalds Coke, Large would produce an observable change in Body Fat. It was assumed that Mcdonalds Coke, Large could produce an observable change in Body Fat for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
20 raw Mcdonalds Coke, Large measurements with 31 changes spanning 121 days from 2013-01-12 to 2013-05-13 were used in this analysis. 632 raw Body Fat measurements with 491 changes spanning 1319 days from 2013-04-17 to 2016-11-25 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Mcdonalds Coke, Large data was primarily collected using MyFitnessPal. Lose weight with MyFitnessPal, the fastest and easiest-to-use calorie counter for iPhone and iPad. With the largest food database of any iOS calorie counter (over 3,000,000 foods), and amazingly fast food and exercise entry.

Body Fat data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption and Body Fat

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 38 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption and Body Fat is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption
Effect Variable Name Body Fat
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0251
Confidence Level medium
Confidence Interval 0.73706550789733
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.215
Critical T Value 1.684
Total Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Body Fat 0.31 serving
Total Mcdonalds Coke, Large consumption Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Body Fat 0.083 serving
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 38
Optimal Pearson Product 0.11195778883918
P Value 0.034499970105423
Statistical Significance 0.037
Strength of Relationship 0.73706550789733
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-04

Mcdonalds Coke, Large Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Mcdonalds Coke, Large
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-29
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 5.7136762360447
Maximum Allowed Value 30 serving
Mean 0.13158 serving
Median 0 serving
Minimum Allowed Value 0 serving
Number of Changes 31
Number of Correlations 66
Number of Measurements 20
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.33914990192788
Unit Serving
UPC 735641400017
Variable ID 1622
Variance 0.11502265597769

Body Fat Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Body Fat
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-29
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 13.96342656056
Mean 10.993 percent
Median 11.6075 percent
Number of Changes 491
Number of Correlations 1467
Number of Measurements 632
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 4.0441714045305
Unit Percent
UPC 073796306304
Variable ID 1273
Variance 16.355322349222

Tracking Mcdonalds Coke, Large

Get MyFitnessPal here and use it to record your Mcdonalds Coke, Large. Once you have a MyFitnessPal account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Tracking Body Fat

Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Body Fat. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn