Based on data from 4 participants, Acne Severity is generally lowest after a daily total of 17 minutes of Meditation over the previous 7 days.


Abstract
Aggregated data from 4 study participants suggests with a medium degree of confidence (p=0.078349036633274, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.113) that Meditation has a very weakly negative predictive relationship (R=0.05) with Acne Severity. The highest quartile of Acne Severity measurements were observed following an average 19 minutes Meditation per day. The lowest quartile of Acne Severity measurements were observed following an average 17.0723654455 min Meditation per day.
Objective
The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Meditation and Acne Severity. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Meditation values most likely to produce optimal Acne Severity values.
Participant Instructions
Record your Meditation daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Acne Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Acne Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Design
This study is based on data donated by 4 participants. Thus, the study design is equivalent to the aggregation of 4 separate n=1 observational natural experiments.
Data Analysis
Meditation PreProcessing
Meditation measurement values below 0 seconds were assumed erroneous and removed. Meditation measurement values above 7 days were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Meditation data were unrecorded 0 seconds measurement values.
Acne Severity PreProcessing
Acne Severity measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Acne Severity measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Acne Severity so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Meditation would produce an observable change in Acne Severity. It was assumed that Meditation could produce an observable change in Acne Severity for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Meditation measurement values below 0 seconds were assumed erroneous and removed. Meditation measurement values above 7 days were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Meditation data were unrecorded 0 seconds measurement values.

Acne Severity PreProcessing
Acne Severity measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Acne Severity measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Acne Severity so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Meditation would produce an observable change in Acne Severity. It was assumed that Meditation could produce an observable change in Acne Severity for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.

Data Sources
Meditation data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.
Acne Severity data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.
Acne Severity data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.
Limitations
As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out nonexistent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.
The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly negative relationship between Meditation and Acne Severity
Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 346 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Meditation values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.
Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.
Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that timeprecedence was taken into account in all calculations.
Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.
Plausibility
A plausible biochemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Meditation and Acne Severity is coincidental.
Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.
Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.
Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.
The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly negative relationship between Meditation and Acne Severity
Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 346 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Meditation values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.
Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.
Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that timeprecedence was taken into account in all calculations.
Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.
Plausibility
A plausible biochemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Meditation and Acne Severity is coincidental.
Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.
Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.
Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.
Relationship Statistics
Property  Value 

Cause Variable Name  Meditation 
Effect Variable Name  Acne Severity 
Sinn Predictive Coefficient  0.016821758283516 
Confidence Level  medium 
Confidence Interval  0.166336000552 
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient  0.0533 
Critical T Value  1.71275 
Total Meditation Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Acne Severity  19 minutes 
Total Meditation Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Acne Severity  17 minutes 
Duration of Action  7 days 
Effect Size  very weakly negative 
Number of Paired Measurements  346 
Optimal Pearson Product  0.030997916105195 
P Value  0.078349036633274 
Statistical Significance  0.5355750090348 
Strength of Relationship  0.166336000552 
Study Type  population 
Analysis Performed At  20190406 
Number of Participants  4 
Meditation Statistics
Property  Value 

Variable Name  Meditation 
Aggregation Method  SUM 
Analysis Performed At  20190330 
Duration of Action  7 days 
Kurtosis  71.739531650916 
Maximum Allowed Value  7 days 
Mean  10 minutes 
Median  9 minutes 
Minimum Allowed Value  0 seconds 
Number of Correlations  155 
Number of Measurements  2045 
Onset Delay  30 minutes 
Standard Deviation  2.5361095180203 
Unit  Minutes 
UPC  640791683572 
Variable ID  85055 
Variance  27.58203276114 
Acne Severity Statistics
Property  Value 

Variable Name  Acne Severity 
Aggregation Method  MEAN 
Analysis Performed At  20190405 
Duration of Action  7 days 
Kurtosis  3.434737992585 
Maximum Allowed Value  5 out of 5 
Mean  2.8506247524752 out of 5 
Median  2.8127062706271 out of 5 
Minimum Allowed Value  1 out of 5 
Number of Correlations  414 
Number of Measurements  2469 
Onset Delay  0 seconds 
Standard Deviation  0.18333906360135 
Unit  1 to 5 Rating 
UPC  837654497159 
Variable ID  1251 
Variance  0.15878828892066 
Tracking Meditation
Record your Meditation daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.Tracking Acne Severity
Record your Acne Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Principal Investigator  Mike Sinn