This individual's Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity is generally highest after a daily total of 50 milligrams of Modalert intake over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Modalert intake over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Modalert intake is usually followed by an increase in Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity. (R = 0.179)
Typical values for Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity following a given amount of Modalert intake over the previous 7 days.
Typical Modalert intake seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how your Modalert changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Modalert on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Modalert for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity is generally 1.08% higher than normal after a total of 50 milligrams Modalert intake over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a low degree of confidence (p=0.12730453996953, 95% CI -63.902 to 64.26) that Modalert has a weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.18) with Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity. The highest quartile of Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity measurements were observed following an average 31.58 milligrams Modalert per day. The lowest quartile of Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity measurements were observed following an average 50 mg Modalert per day.Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity is generally 4.75% lower than normal after a total of 50 milligrams of Modalert intake over the previous 7 days. Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity is generally 1.08% higher after a total of 31.58 milligrams of Modalert intake over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Modalert and Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Modalert values most likely to produce optimal Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Modalert daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Modalert Pre-Processing
Modalert measurement values below 0 milligrams were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Modalert. It was assumed that any gaps in Modalert data were unrecorded 0 milligrams measurement values.
Modalert Analysis Settings

Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity Pre-Processing
Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity measurement values below 0 index were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity. No missing data filling value was defined for Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Modalert would produce an observable change in Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity. It was assumed that Modalert could produce an observable change in Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
12 raw Modalert measurements with 24 changes spanning 1359 days from 2012-06-18 to 2016-03-08 were used in this analysis. 37 raw Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity measurements with 33 changes spanning 345 days from 2012-04-15 to 2013-03-26 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Modalert data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between Modalert intake and Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 27 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Modalert intake values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Modalert intake and Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Potential Issues Identified During Analysis
Correlation is moderately positive (0.179) but the value predicting a high outcome (31.578947368421) is less than the value predicting a low outcome (50).
The average of effect values expected to be lower than average (1021.6) are actually higher than the average (975.25925925926). This suggests a weak relationship or insufficient data.
The average of effect values expected to be higher than average (964.72727272727) are actually lower than the average (975.25925925926). This suggests a weak relationship or insufficient data.
The low effect change is greater than the high effect change.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Modalert intake
Effect Variable Name Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0089
Confidence Level low
Confidence Interval 64.080523882065
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.179
Critical T Value 1.703
Total Modalert intake Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity 31.58 milligrams
Total Modalert intake Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity 50 milligrams
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 27
Optimal Pearson Product -0.041649490420098
P Value 0.12730453996953
Statistical Significance 0.025131738561754
Strength of Relationship 64.080523882065
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-06-28

Modalert Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Modalert
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-26
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 149.53171830147
Mean 1.3732 milligrams
Median 0 milligrams
Minimum Allowed Value 0 milligrams
Number of Changes 24
Number of Correlations 111
Number of Measurements 12
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 16.034278447776
Unit Milligrams
UPC 784672343275
Variable ID 1381
Variance 257.0980853408

Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-05
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 1.2870307307161
Mean 897.41 index
Median 983 index
Minimum Allowed Value 0 index
Number of Changes 33
Number of Correlations 90
Number of Measurements 37
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 168.81753125448
Unit Index
Variable ID 1450
Variance 28499.358858859

Tracking Modalert

Record your Modalert daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity

Record your Cognitive Speed Score From Lumosity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn