This individual's Overall Mood is generally 0.8% higher after 5.66 serving Oil - Olive over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the sum of Oil - Olive consumption over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Oil - Olive consumption is usually followed by an increase in Overall Mood. (R = 0.023)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Oil - Olive consumption over the previous 7 days.
Typical Oil - Olive consumption seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how Oil - Olive changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Oil - Olive on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Oil - Olive for each month of the year.
This chart shows how Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 0% higher than normal after a total of 5 serving Oil - Olive consumption over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a medium degree of confidence (p=0.39192127250025, 95% CI -0.111 to 0.157) that Oil - Olive has a very weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.02) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 3.24 serving Oil - Olive per day. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 3.2089552238806 serving Oil - Olive per day. Overall Mood is generally 0% lower than normal after a total of 3.2089552238806 serving of Oil - Olive consumption over the previous 7 days. Overall Mood is generally 0% higher after a total of 3.24 serving of Oil - Olive consumption over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Oil and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Oil - Olive values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Oil - Olive daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Oil - Olive Pre-Processing
Oil - Olive measurement values below 0 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. Oil - Olive measurement values above 40 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Oil - Olive data were unrecorded 0 serving measurement values.
Oil - Olive Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Oil - Olive would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Oil - Olive could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
41 raw Oil - Olive measurements with 38 changes spanning 68 days from 2013-11-06 to 2014-01-13 were used in this analysis. 14171 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1271 changes spanning 2662 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-08-19 were used in this analysis.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Overall Mood is not statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. This suggests that the Oil - Olive value does not have a significant influence on the Overall Mood value.After treatment, a 0.8% increase (0.019290267542338 out of 5) from the mean baseline 2.4014544079437 out of 5 was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 22.6%. The observed change was 0.035575431943715 times the standard deviation. A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would may have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value

Data Sources

Oil - Olive data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly positive relationship between Oil - Olive consumption and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 137 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Oil - Olive consumption values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Oil - Olive consumption and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Oil - Olive consumption
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0216
Confidence Level medium
Confidence Interval 0.13406494254778
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient 0.023
Critical T Value 1.646
Total Oil - Olive consumption Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 3.24 serving
Total Oil - Olive consumption Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 3.209 serving
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size very weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 137
Optimal Pearson Product 0.00017191968989983
P Value 0.39192127250025
Statistical Significance 0.594
Strength of Relationship 0.13406494254778
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-07-16
Number of Pairs 137
Number of Raw Predictor Measurements ( Including Tags, Joins, and Children) 41
Baseline Relative Standard Deviation of Outcome Measurements 22.6
Experiment Duration (days) 142
Number of Raw Outcome Measurements 14051
Z Score 0.035575431943715
Last Analysis 2019-07-16
Experiment Began 2013-10-07 14:00:00
Experiment Ended 2014-02-26 21:30:00
P Value 0.39192127250025
Predictor Category Foods
Duration of Action (h) 168
Onset Delay (h) 0.5
Significance 0.594
Outcome Relative Standard Deviation at Baseline 22.6
Outcome Standard Deviation at Baseline 0.54223565220115/5
Outcome Mean at Baseline 2.4014544079437/5
Average Followup Change From Baseline 0.8&
Average Absolute Followup Change From Baseline 2.4207446754861/5
Z- Score 0.035575431943715
Average Predictor Treatment Value 5.66serving over 7 days

Oil - Olive Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Oil - Olive
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-08
Duration of Action 14 days
Kurtosis 7.4086707893053
Maximum Allowed Value 40 serving
Mean 0.88406 serving
Median 1 serving
Minimum Allowed Value 0 serving
Number of Changes 38
Number of Correlations 117
Number of Measurements 41
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 1.0507172883889
Unit Serving
Variable ID 1798
Variance 1.1040068201194

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-19
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8691023963331
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9073 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1271
Number of Correlations 4600
Number of Measurements 14171
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52064074107278
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.27106678126481

Tracking Oil - Olive

Record your Oil - Olive daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn