cause image
gauge image
effect image

This individual's Body Mass Index Or BMI is generally highest after a daily total of 1 serving of Organic Medium Chili consumption over the previous 7 days.
Join This Study
Go To Interactive Study
Blue represents the sum of Organic Medium Chili consumption over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Organic Medium Chili consumption is usually followed by an increase in Body Mass Index Or BMI. (R = 0.391)
Typical values for Body Mass Index Or BMI following a given amount of Organic Medium Chili consumption over the previous 7 days.
Typical Organic Medium Chili consumption seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Body Mass Index Or BMI value.
This chart shows how your Organic Medium Chili changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Organic Medium Chili on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Organic Medium Chili for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Body Mass Index Or BMI changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Body Mass Index Or BMI on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Body Mass Index Or BMI for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Body Mass Index Or BMI is generally 1% higher than normal after a total of 1 serving Organic Medium Chili consumption over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=1.6299906570195E-7, 95% CI 0.255 to 0.527) that Organic Medium Chili has a moderately positive predictive relationship (R=0.39) with Body Mass Index Or BMI. The highest quartile of Body Mass Index Or BMI measurements were observed following an average 0.98 serving Organic Medium Chili per day. The lowest quartile of Body Mass Index Or BMI measurements were observed following an average 0.03030303030303 serving Organic Medium Chili per day.Body Mass Index Or BMI is generally 1% lower than normal after a total of 0.03030303030303 serving of Organic Medium Chili consumption over the previous 7 days. Body Mass Index Or BMI is generally 1% higher after a total of 0.98 serving of Organic Medium Chili consumption over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Organic Medium Chili and Body Mass Index Or BMI. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Organic Medium Chili values most likely to produce optimal Body Mass Index Or BMI values.

Participant Instructions

Get MyFitnessPal here and use it to record your Organic Medium Chili. Once you have a MyFitnessPal account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Body Mass Index Or BMI. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Organic Medium Chili Pre-Processing
Organic Medium Chili measurement values below 0 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. Organic Medium Chili measurement values above 30 serving were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Organic Medium Chili data were unrecorded 0 serving measurement values.
Organic Medium Chili Analysis Settings

Body Mass Index Or BMI Pre-Processing
Body Mass Index Or BMI measurement values below 1 index were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Body Mass Index Or BMI. No missing data filling value was defined for Body Mass Index Or BMI so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Body Mass Index Or BMI Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Organic Medium Chili would produce an observable change in Body Mass Index Or BMI. It was assumed that Organic Medium Chili could produce an observable change in Body Mass Index Or BMI for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
6 raw Organic Medium Chili measurements with 12 changes spanning 35 days from 2013-01-22 to 2013-02-26 were used in this analysis. 2355 raw Body Mass Index Or BMI measurements with 1756 changes spanning 2538 days from 2012-04-18 to 2019-03-31 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Organic Medium Chili data was primarily collected using MyFitnessPal. Lose weight with MyFitnessPal, the fastest and easiest-to-use calorie counter for iPhone and iPad. With the largest food database of any iOS calorie counter (over 3,000,000 foods), and amazingly fast food and exercise entry.

Body Mass Index Or BMI data was primarily collected using Fitbit. Fitbit makes activity tracking easy and automatic.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a moderately positive relationship between Organic Medium Chili consumption and Body Mass Index Or BMI

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 76 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Organic Medium Chili consumption values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Organic Medium Chili consumption and Body Mass Index Or BMI is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Organic Medium Chili consumption
Effect Variable Name Body Mass Index Or BMI
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0357
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.13610464228437
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.391
Critical T Value 1.664
Total Organic Medium Chili consumption Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Body Mass Index Or BMI 0.98 serving
Total Organic Medium Chili consumption Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Body Mass Index Or BMI 0.03 serving
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size moderately positive
Number of Paired Measurements 76
Optimal Pearson Product 0.378965025487
P Value 1.6299906570195E-7
Statistical Significance 0.0502
Strength of Relationship 0.13610464228437
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-04

Organic Medium Chili Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Organic Medium Chili
Aggregation Method SUM
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-27
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 10.610902255639
Maximum Allowed Value 30 serving
Mean 0.078947 serving
Median 0 serving
Minimum Allowed Value 0 serving
Number of Changes 12
Number of Correlations 45
Number of Measurements 6
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.27144835701532
Unit Serving
Variable ID 1665
Variance 0.073684210526316

Body Mass Index Or BMI Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Body Mass Index Or BMI
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-03
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 2.7834166526091
Mean 20.593 index
Median 20.532480239868 index
Minimum Allowed Value 1 index
Number of Changes 1756
Number of Correlations 2485
Number of Measurements 2355
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.71676319189842
Unit Index
UPC 712038762439
Variable ID 1272
Variance 0.51374947326041

Tracking Organic Medium Chili

Get MyFitnessPal here and use it to record your Organic Medium Chili. Once you have a MyFitnessPal account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.

Tracking Body Mass Index Or BMI

Get Fitbit here and use it to record your Body Mass Index Or BMI. Once you have a Fitbit account, you can import your data from the Import Data page. This individual's data will automatically be imported and analyzed.
Join This Study

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn