cause image
gauge image
effect image

This individual's Overall Mood is generally highest after an average of 0.43 tablets of Probiotic Plus over the previous 7 days.
Join This Study
Go To Interactive Study
Blue represents the mean of Probiotic Plus over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Probiotic Plus is usually followed by an increase in Overall Mood. (R = 0.416)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Probiotic Plus over the previous 7 days.
Typical Probiotic Plus seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
This chart shows how your Probiotic Plus changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Probiotic Plus on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Probiotic Plus for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 8% higher than normal after an average of 0.4286 tablets Probiotic Plus over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=8.7606643735756E-6, 95% CI 0.228 to 0.604) that Probiotic Plus has a moderately positive predictive relationship (R=0.42) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 0.37 tablets Probiotic Plus. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 0.14606227106227 tablets Probiotic Plus.Overall Mood is generally 5% lower than normal after an average of 0.14606227106227 tablets of Probiotic Plus over the previous 7 days. Overall Mood is generally 8% higher after an average of 0.37 tablets of Probiotic Plus over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Probiotic Plus and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Probiotic Plus values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Probiotic Plus daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Probiotic Plus Pre-Processing
Probiotic Plus measurement values below 0 tablets were assumed erroneous and removed. Probiotic Plus measurement values above 20 tablets were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Probiotic Plus data were unrecorded 0 tablets measurement values.
Probiotic Plus Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Probiotic Plus would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Probiotic Plus could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
50 raw Probiotic Plus measurements with 18 changes spanning 62 days from 2013-01-29 to 2013-04-01 were used in this analysis. 13615 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1190 changes spanning 2519 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-03-29 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Probiotic Plus data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a moderately positive relationship between Probiotic Plus and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 121 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Probiotic Plus values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 9 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 4 feel that any relationship observed between Probiotic Plus and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Probiotic Plus
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.207
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.18764034131749
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.416
Critical T Value 1.646
Average Probiotic Plus Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 0.37 tablets
Average Probiotic Plus Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 0.146 tablets
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size moderately positive
Number of Paired Measurements 121
Optimal Pearson Product 0.25645198372237
P Value 8.7606643735756E-6
Statistical Significance 0.4425
Strength of Relationship 0.18764034131749
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-04

Probiotic Plus Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Probiotic Plus
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-19
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 2.0769154964277
Maximum Allowed Value 20 tablets
Mean 0.26829 tablets
Median 0 tablets
Minimum Allowed Value 0 tablets
Number of Changes 18
Number of Correlations 55
Number of Measurements 50
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.44488294153331
Unit Tablets
UPC 096962995966
Variable ID 1415
Variance 0.19792083166733

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-29
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8386769841776
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9137 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1190
Number of Correlations 4067
Number of Measurements 13615
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52684137550779
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.27756183494694

Tracking Probiotic Plus

Record your Probiotic Plus daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Join This Study

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn