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This individual's Acne Severity is generally lowest after an average of 0 tablets of Super B Complex over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the mean of Super B Complex over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Super B Complex is usually followed by an increase in Acne Severity. (R = 0.165)
Typical values for Acne Severity following a given amount of Super B Complex over the previous 7 days.
Typical Super B Complex seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Acne Severity value.
This chart shows how your Super B Complex changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Super B Complex on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Super B Complex for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Acne Severity changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Acne Severity on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Acne Severity for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Acne Severity is generally 2% lower than normal after 0 tablets Super B Complex per 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=1.7657593338041E-5, 95% CI -0.16 to 0.49) that Super B Complex has a weakly positive predictive relationship (R=0.17) with Acne Severity. The highest quartile of Acne Severity measurements were observed following an average 0.07 tablets Super B Complex. The lowest quartile of Acne Severity measurements were observed following an average 0 tablets Super B Complex.Acne Severity is generally 2% lower than normal after an average of 0 tablets of Super B Complex over the previous 7 days. Acne Severity is generally 39% higher after an average of 0.07 tablets of Super B Complex over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Super B Complex and Acne Severity. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Super B Complex values most likely to produce optimal Acne Severity values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Super B Complex daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Acne Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Super B Complex Pre-Processing
Super B Complex measurement values below 0 tablets were assumed erroneous and removed. Super B Complex measurement values above 20 tablets were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Super B Complex data were unrecorded 0 tablets measurement values.
Super B Complex Analysis Settings

Acne Severity Pre-Processing
Acne Severity measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Acne Severity measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Acne Severity so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Acne Severity Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Super B Complex would produce an observable change in Acne Severity. It was assumed that Super B Complex could produce an observable change in Acne Severity for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
476 raw Super B Complex measurements with 102 changes spanning 1166 days from 2013-07-22 to 2016-10-01 were used in this analysis. 1292 raw Acne Severity measurements with 396 changes spanning 2265 days from 2013-01-12 to 2019-03-28 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Super B Complex data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Acne Severity data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly positive relationship between Super B Complex and Acne Severity

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 118 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Super B Complex values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Super B Complex and Acne Severity is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Super B Complex
Effect Variable Name Acne Severity
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.04
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.32519256935842
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.165
Critical T Value 1.646
Average Super B Complex Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Acne Severity 0.07 tablets
Average Super B Complex Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Acne Severity 0 tablets
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly positive
Number of Paired Measurements 118
Optimal Pearson Product 0.079336406245925
P Value 1.7657593338041E-5
Statistical Significance 0.1777
Strength of Relationship 0.32519256935842
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-04

Super B Complex Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Super B Complex
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-02-05
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 4.6767689478068
Maximum Allowed Value 20 tablets
Mean 0.15396 tablets
Median 0 tablets
Minimum Allowed Value 0 tablets
Number of Changes 102
Number of Correlations 224
Number of Measurements 476
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 0.36084006734363
Unit Tablets
UPC 785923401249
Variable ID 1454
Variance 0.13020555420056

Acne Severity Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Acne Severity
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-30
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 2.8167718883082
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 1.957 out of 5
Median 2 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 396
Number of Correlations 2252
Number of Measurements 1292
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.74695667765913
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 837654497159
Variable ID 1251
Variance 0.55794427829956

Tracking Super B Complex

Record your Super B Complex daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Acne Severity

Record your Acne Severity daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn