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This individual's Guiltiness is generally lowest after an average of 670 micrograms of Vitamin D3 By NatureMade over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the mean of Vitamin D3 By NatureMade over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Vitamin D3 By NatureMade is usually followed by an decrease in Guiltiness. (R = -0.202)
Typical values for Guiltiness following a given amount of Vitamin D3 By NatureMade over the previous 7 days.
Typical Vitamin D3 By NatureMade seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Guiltiness value.
This chart shows how your Vitamin D3 By NatureMade changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Vitamin D3 By NatureMade on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Vitamin D3 By NatureMade for each month of the year.
This chart shows how your Guiltiness changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Guiltiness on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Guiltiness for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Guiltiness is generally 9% lower than normal after 666.66666666667 micrograms Vitamin D3 By NatureMade per 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a medium degree of confidence (p=0.018809428113165, 95% CI -0.53 to 0.126) that Vitamin D3 By NatureMade has a weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.2) with Guiltiness. The highest quartile of Guiltiness measurements were observed following an average 519.92 micrograms Vitamin D3 By NatureMade. The lowest quartile of Guiltiness measurements were observed following an average 579.57766439909 mcg Vitamin D3 By NatureMade.Guiltiness is generally 9% lower than normal after an average of 579.57766439909 micrograms of Vitamin D3 By NatureMade over the previous 7 days. Guiltiness is generally 13% higher after an average of 519.92 micrograms of Vitamin D3 By NatureMade over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Vitamin D3 By NatureMade and Guiltiness. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Vitamin D3 By NatureMade values most likely to produce optimal Guiltiness values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Vitamin D3 By NatureMade daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Guiltiness daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Vitamin D3 By NatureMade Pre-Processing
Vitamin D3 By NatureMade measurement values below 0 micrograms were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Vitamin D3 By NatureMade. It was assumed that any gaps in Vitamin D3 By NatureMade data were unrecorded 0 micrograms measurement values.
Vitamin D3 By NatureMade Analysis Settings

Guiltiness Pre-Processing
Guiltiness measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Guiltiness measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Guiltiness so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Guiltiness Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Vitamin D3 By NatureMade would produce an observable change in Guiltiness. It was assumed that Vitamin D3 By NatureMade could produce an observable change in Guiltiness for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
88 raw Vitamin D3 By NatureMade measurements with 26 changes spanning 235 days from 2013-10-02 to 2014-05-25 were used in this analysis. 2793 raw Guiltiness measurements with 661 changes spanning 1961 days from 2013-11-17 to 2019-04-01 were used in this analysis.

Data Sources

Vitamin D3 By NatureMade data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Guiltiness data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a weakly negative relationship between Vitamin D3 By NatureMade and Guiltiness

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 136 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Vitamin D3 By NatureMade values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 0 feel that any relationship observed between Vitamin D3 By NatureMade and Guiltiness is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Vitamin D3 By NatureMade
Effect Variable Name Guiltiness
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.2219
Confidence Level medium
Confidence Interval 0.3283554978928
Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient -0.202
Critical T Value 1.646
Average Vitamin D3 By Nature Made Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Guiltiness 519.92 micrograms
Average Vitamin D3 By Nature Made Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Guiltiness 579.578 micrograms
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size weakly negative
Number of Paired Measurements 136
Optimal Pearson Product 0.029169962242167
P Value 0.018809428113165
Statistical Significance 0.6445
Strength of Relationship 0.3283554978928
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-04

Vitamin D3 By NatureMade Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Vitamin D3 By NatureMade
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-03-20
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 2.1341904038406
Mean 264.58 micrograms
Median 0 micrograms
Minimum Allowed Value 0 micrograms
Number of Changes 26
Number of Correlations 185
Number of Measurements 88
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 441.66919021445
Unit Micrograms
UPC 885376769207
Variable ID 86650
Variance 195071.67358469

Guiltiness Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Guiltiness
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-04-01
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 3.1224153723756
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.1627 out of 5
Median 2 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 661
Number of Correlations 5379
Number of Measurements 2793
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.92130141512025
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
Variable ID 1335
Variance 0.84879629750257

Tracking Vitamin D3 By NatureMade

Record your Vitamin D3 By NatureMade daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Guiltiness

Record your Guiltiness daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn