This individual's Overall Mood is generally 4.4% lower after 669 micrograms Vitamin D3 over the previous 7 days.
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Blue represents the mean of Vitamin D3 over the previous 7 days
An increase in 7 days cumulative Vitamin D3 is usually followed by an decrease in Overall Mood. (R = -0.093)
Typical values for Overall Mood following a given amount of Vitamin D3 over the previous 7 days.
Typical Vitamin D3 seen over the previous 7 days preceding the given Overall Mood value.
Correlation between outcome and aggregated predictor measurements over given number of days
Peak correlation suggests the delay between predictor and observable outcome
This chart shows how Vitamin D3 changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Vitamin D3 on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Vitamin D3 for each month of the year.
This chart shows how Overall Mood changes over time.
Each column represents the number of days this value occurred.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood on each day of the week.
This chart shows the typical value recorded for Overall Mood for each month of the year.

Abstract

This individual's Overall Mood is generally 1% higher than normal after an average of 25 micrograms Vitamin D3 over the previous 7 days. This individual's data suggests with a high degree of confidence (p=0.001, 95% CI -0.151 to -0.035) that Vitamin D3 has a very weakly negative predictive relationship (R=-0.09) with Overall Mood. The highest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 75.87 micrograms Vitamin D3. The lowest quartile of Overall Mood measurements were observed following an average 122.43969150749 mcg Vitamin D3. Overall Mood is generally 4% lower than normal after an average of 122.43969150749 micrograms of Vitamin D3 over the previous 7 days. Overall Mood is generally 1% higher after an average of 75.87 micrograms of Vitamin D3 over the previous 7 days.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship (if any) between Vitamin D3 and Overall Mood. Additionally, we attempt to determine the Vitamin D3 values most likely to produce optimal Overall Mood values.

Participant Instructions

Record your Vitamin D3 daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Design

This study is based on data donated by one participant. Thus, the study design is consistent with an n=1 observational natural experiment.

Data Analysis

Vitamin D3 Pre-Processing
Vitamin D3 measurement values below 0 micrograms were assumed erroneous and removed. No maximum allowed measurement value was defined for Vitamin D3. It was assumed that any gaps in Vitamin D3 data were unrecorded 0 micrograms measurement values.
Vitamin D3 Analysis Settings

Overall Mood Pre-Processing
Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.
Overall Mood Analysis Settings

Predictive Analytics
It was assumed that 0.5 hours would pass before a change in Vitamin D3 would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Vitamin D3 could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.
Predictive Analysis Settings

Data Quantity
140 raw Vitamin D3 measurements with 65 changes spanning 1903 days from 2013-10-02 to 2018-12-19 were used in this analysis. 14171 raw Overall Mood measurements with 1271 changes spanning 2662 days from 2012-05-06 to 2019-08-19 were used in this analysis.

Statistical Significance

Using a two-tailed t-test with alpha = 0.05, it was determined that the change in Overall Mood is statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. After treatment, a 4.4% decrease (-0.12473680209503 out of 5) from the mean baseline 2.8319062059769 out of 5 was observed. The relative standard deviation at baseline was 12.7%. The observed change was 0.34769170469498 times the standard deviation. A common rule of thumb considers a change greater than twice the baseline standard deviation on two separate pre-post experiments may be considered significant. This occurrence would may have only a 5% likelihood of resulting from random fluctuation (a p-value

Data Sources

Vitamin D3 data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

Limitations

As with any human experiment, it was impossible to control for all potentially confounding variables. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. We can never know for sure if one factor is definitely the cause of an outcome. However, lack of correlation definitely implies the lack of a causal relationship. Hence, we can with great confidence rule out non-existent relationships. For instance, if we discover no relationship between mood and an antidepressant this information is just as or even more valuable than the discovery that there is a relationship.
We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows:
Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a very weakly negative relationship between Vitamin D3 and Overall Mood

Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 1685 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Vitamin D3 values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

Specificity
Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

Biological Gradient
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

Plausibility
A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 1 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 1 feel that any relationship observed between Vitamin D3 and Overall Mood is coincidental.

Coherence
Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

Experiment
All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

Analogy
The effect of similar factors may be considered.

Relationship Statistics

Property Value
Cause Variable Name Vitamin D3
Effect Variable Name Overall Mood
Sinn Predictive Coefficient 0.0896
Confidence Level high
Confidence Interval 0.057680200480206
Forward Pearson Predictive Coefficient -0.093
Critical T Value 1.646
Average Vitamin D3 Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood 75.87 micrograms
Average Vitamin D3 Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood 122.44 micrograms
Duration of Action 7 days
Effect Size very weakly negative
Number of Paired Measurements 1685
Optimal Pearson Product 0.017111532451653
P Value 0.001
Statistical Significance 0.9635
Strength of Relationship 0.057680200480206
Study Type individual
Analysis Performed At 2019-07-16
Number of Pairs 1685
Number of Raw Predictor Measurements ( Including Tags, Joins, and Children) 140
Baseline Relative Standard Deviation of Outcome Measurements 12.7
Experiment Duration (days) 1954
Number of Raw Outcome Measurements 14050
Z Score 0.34769170469498
Last Analysis 2019-07-16
Experiment Began 2013-09-02 21:12:00
Experiment Ended 2019-01-09 00:30:00
P Value 0.001
Predictor Category Treatments
Duration of Action (h) 168
Onset Delay (h) 0.5
Significance 0.9635
Outcome Relative Standard Deviation at Baseline 12.7
Outcome Standard Deviation at Baseline 0.35875691139788/5
Outcome Mean at Baseline 2.8319062059769/5
Average Followup Change From Baseline -4.4&
Average Absolute Followup Change From Baseline 2.7071694038819/5
Z- Score 0.34769170469498
Average Predictor Treatment Value 669mcg over 7 days

Vitamin D3 Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Vitamin D3
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-03
Duration of Action 7 days
Kurtosis 46.533291998625
Mean 49.442 micrograms
Median 0 micrograms
Minimum Allowed Value 0 micrograms
Number of Changes 65
Number of Correlations 238
Number of Measurements 140
Onset Delay 30 minutes
Standard Deviation 236.46212965762
Unit Micrograms
UPC 700613019009
Variable ID 1479
Variance 55914.338762217

Overall Mood Statistics

Property Value
Variable Name Overall Mood
Aggregation Method MEAN
Analysis Performed At 2019-08-19
Duration of Action 24 hours
Kurtosis 6.8691023963331
Maximum Allowed Value 5 out of 5
Mean 2.9073 out of 5
Median 3 out of 5
Minimum Allowed Value 1 out of 5
Number of Changes 1271
Number of Correlations 4600
Number of Measurements 14171
Onset Delay 0 seconds
Standard Deviation 0.52064074107278
Unit 1 to 5 Rating
UPC 767674073845
Variable ID 1398
Variance 0.27106678126481

Tracking Vitamin D3

Record your Vitamin D3 daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

Tracking Overall Mood

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.
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https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BHr4hyUWqZU/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAIG28/2Lv0en738II/photo.jpg Principal Investigator - Mike Sinn